Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
415 ACUS48 KWNS 080846 SWOD48 SPC AC 080844 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024