Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
703 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm afternoon temperatures for Tuesday.

- A storm system on Wednesday will bring rain and storm
  potential for areas mainly south of highway 50.

- Cooler weather and more rain chances are possible this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

18z observations show a large trough in the eastern CONUS with
northwest flow in the central and northern plains and a large
trough in the western CONUS with an almost stationary closed
upper low in southern California. At the surface a large 1030 mb
surface high pressure is leading to sunny skies and light winds
for much of the central plains.

Tonight as the surface high moves to the south and east an area
of milder air will move in from the northwest as 850 mb temps
will warm to around 12 (C) by sunrise. Surface winds will also
switch to the southwest and increase through the night to 10-20
kts. This combination should keep the lower level better mixed
and overnight lows should be milder as mid to upper 30s will be
the result by sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday a surface trough will develop in eastern Colorado and
850 mb temperatures will continue to warm to around 15-16 (C).
Winds in the boundary layer should also generally be west to
southwest adding a downsloping effect and combining with plenty
of sunshine I went more with NBM75th temperatures for highs
which puts most of southwest Kansas in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday night as the surface low moves from southeast Colorado
to north central Oklahoma a weak cold front should also move
through and winds will start to switch to the northeast. With
warm air aloft this should once again help to keep temperatures
more mild as lows fall into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Wednesday winds from the subtropical jet will start to push the
upper low in Arizona into northeast New Mexico by the afternoon.
Ensemble cluster tracks in the 500 mb levels show the closed low
becoming a trough and moving through the northern Texas
panhandle. At the surface a surface low will develop in
northeast New Mexico with a warm front boundary ending up
somewhere between highway 50 and the Oklahoma border. The
location of the warm front will be the main focus for shower and
thunderstorm developing as the upper level trough moves into
the central plains Wednesday afternoon. Severe weather chances
look to stay limited as CAPE values will be under 500 J/kg and
0-6 km wind shear is 20 kts or less. Highest rainfall amounts
will be for areas along the Oklahoma border as Euro ensembles
have around 50% chance of at least 0.1 inch from Liberal to
Medicine Lodge and GEFS ensembles are in the 60-80% range.


The next weather maker of interest will be this weekend. The
subtropical jet will increase in speed along the southern CONUS
and by Sunday afternoon the left exit region will set up in
south central Kansas. The upper level lift combining with a cold
front moving through western Kansas will give us increasing
chances of rain during the afternoon with NBMv4.1 POPs reaching
30-50% by Sunday evening. Euro ensembles also have a strong 975
mb surface low in Nebraska and the GEFS ensembles have a 977 low
in northeast Colorado so strong winds are also on the table for
Sunday if this set up occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Expect winds to become southwest at 8-12 kts as surface high
pressure moves off to the east. VFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch


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