Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161035
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally tranquil weather will continue across southwest KS
  through early next week as the Rex Block remains locked in
  place.

- A weak cold front Saturday night and ensuing cold advection
  will bring sub-freezing temperatures Monday morning.

- Precipitation chances return around Wednesday/Thursday next
  week favoring the eastern zones as the Rex Block breaks down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 08Z
reveal a strong cut-off low remains fixed over the far
southwestern CONUS, with a cut-off ridge over the Pacific
Northwest/southwest Canada. This pattern is known as a Rex
Block, and will result in virtually no change to the synoptic
pattern throughout the short term period. Daytime Saturday,
short range guidance agrees 850-mb temperatures will warm by
~5C, translating to a slightly warmer day for southwest KS
despite increasing cloud cover as highs reach into the low 60s
west to upper 60s/near 70 east. Saturday night, a weak cold
front connected to a surface low over southeast Ontario will
drift south through our area, resulting in winds switching to
northerly. Although the core of the cold air will be displaced
to the northeast of our area, weak cold advection will foster
a minor cooldown on Sunday as afternoon highs only peak in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Confidence in Sunday night/Monday morning bringing the coldest
temperatures this forecast period remains high as EPS
probability of temperatures dropping below freezing has
increased further into the 80-100 range for nearly our entire
area now, with only locations right along the KS/OK border
holding on to lower probabilities of 50-80%. Accordingly, NBM
lows Monday morning have decreased, now in the low 20s across
the northern zones to the upper 20s along the KS/OK border.
Daytime Monday, light northerly surface winds will gradually
shift to westerly as high pressure moves through our area into
the southern plains behind a digging upper level shortwave to
the east. As a result, cool temperatures will linger Monday
afternoon with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Medium range ensembles have trended a bit quicker with the
weakening of the Rex Block over the western CONUS, now showing
the cut-off low over the Desert Southwest beginning to spin down
into an open wave during the day Tuesday as the ridge to its
north retrogrades. As this happens, 500-mb heights will rise
over the central plains as weak shortwave ridging takes shape,
and a noticeable jump in afternoon temperatures will occur with
highs warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Ensembles finally
kick the now open upper level shortwave trough across the
Rockies and into the central plains on Wednesday/Wednesday
night. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of this feature,
the first robust opportunity for precipitation in days will
materialize, favoring the eastern half of our area. EPS and
GEFS probability of QPF greater than 0.01" (0.1") range from
around 50% (20%) along US-83 to 70-80% (40-50%) by our far east
zones. The NBM agrees, and pops have ticked up a bit into the
chance category (25-54%) along and east of US-283 centered
around Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

In the wake of this wave, medium range ensembles suggest the
synoptic pattern will transition to favor troughing out west and
ridging out east, implying cooler temperatures and further
precipitation chances could be on the horizon for southwest KS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds
will stay aob 10 kts initially out of the west before a weak
cold front passes Saturday evening and winds flip to north-
northeasterly.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer


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