Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
856 FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.0/1n flare at 02/0217 UTC from Region 3663 (N26E10, Dac/beta-delta) and an M2.7 flare at 02/2057 UTC from Region 3664 (S18E52, Dai/beta). Regions 3663 and 3664 produced the majority of the flaring activity. Both regions were in a growth phase. Region 3663 appeared to have a small delta within its larger central spot. Region 3654 (S07W90, Eai/beta) appeared to be in decay as it rotated around the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 03-05 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 03-05 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 03-05 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through approximately mid period with total field around 10 nT and solar wind speed at mostly nominal levels. At 02/1317 UTC, a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft indicating the arrival of a CME, possibly from 29 Apr. Total field increased to 19 nT while solar wind speed only increased to near 400 km/s. Solar wind speed further increased to around 450 km/s with total field remaining in the 17 to 20 nT range. Prolonged periods of southward Bz were observed reaching -19 nT. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under CME effects through 02 May, but slowly diminish through the day. A transition to positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 04 May and persisting through 05 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Quiet to unsettled levels were observed through 03/1200 UTC. At 02/1412 UTC, a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed (29 nT at HAD magnetometer). The geomagnetic field then reached G3 (Strong) storming levels from approximately 1500-2100 UTC. .Forecast... G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through early to midday on 03 May as CME effects persist. Quiet to active lives are expected on 04-05 May as HSS effects take over.