125
FNUS73 KDLH 041645
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Big Bull Riparian...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1145 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 04.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...
A weaker system is presently moving through the burn area, earnest
rain will subside early this afternoon turning into shower
activity which will continue until sunset (here and there). After
all is said and done, about 0.25 to 0.5" of precipitation is
expected from this system. The sun should be out most of the day
Sunday with typical diurnal clouds increasing, but still with sun
breaks. High pressure overhead. MinRH may get down into the low
30s with deep mixing though wind speeds won`t be too strong under
the high pressure to really bring down the RH.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15400-21800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.11 inches.

TIME (CDT)      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30        40
LAL.............1         2
Temp............48        50
RH..............84        74
20 FT wind......S 3G7     SW 4G7
Mix hgt (ft)....2600      2600
Transport wind..SW 7      W 7
Haines index....3         3
SDspl kt-ft/100015        16

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening, then slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17400-29500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2500 knot-ft) early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR       NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40           0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............51           43           37
RH..............68           86           96
20 FT wind......W 5G9        NW 3G11      NW 3G9
Mix hgt (ft)....2900         500          400
Transport wind..NW 12        NW 10        NW 9
Haines index....3            3            3
SDspl kt-ft/100030           5            4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3200-17100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (45800-59500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............36           48           56
RH..............92           60           40
20 FT wind......W 3G6        NW 6G11      NW 6G9
Mix hgt (ft)....400          3500         5400
Transport wind..NW 9         NW 14        NW 13
Haines index....3            3            3
SDspl kt-ft/10003            42           58

$$
Forecaster...Jonathan
Requested by...Jeb Backe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413108.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeb.backe@usda.gov