Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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921 FXUS63 KDMX 140509 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1209 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms across central and southern Iowa this afternoon and evening, lingering Tuesday morning in southeast Iowa. Severe chances are very low. - Smoke from wildfires in Canada has filtered south into the area with impacts into Tuesday. - Additional showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday. Severe risk is low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted off and on today, becoming more persistent in southwest Iowa this afternoon as the primary forcing near the surface low lifts nearer to Iowa. This shield of precipitation will continue across central and southern Iowa through the overnight, tapering off towards southeast Iowa by Tuesday morning as the low departs to the east. With little in the way of shear and fairly modest instability the severe threat remains quite low. Additional QPF of 1-1.5 inches is possible with this slow moving system. Even so, with low rain rates and recovering river levels, hydrologic problems are not anticipated. Tuesday with feature a lull in activity ahead of the next system. Primary impacts on Tuesday will be smoke filtering south into Iowa from wildfires burning in central Iowa. Additional information on air quality in Iowa can be found through the Iowa DNR. By Wednesday a long wave trough will shift into the central US. Embedded within the wave is a southern and northern stream. Recent model runs have hinted that the streams will not quite phase, resulting in less forcing across Iowa with a low moving both north and south of the area. The Euro and GFS split some in how to handle Iowa in between. For now the GFS favors a slower phasing that occurs east of Iowa, resulting in less rain while the Euro is a little faster with more rain. In both cases severe impacts are low into the area with primary forcing mechanisms outside the area. Models continue to indicate another shortwave passing across the area this weekend, however there are still rather substantial differences in timing between the GFS/Euro suites. These would have notable impacts to both precipitation and on temperatures. Recent NBM runs have favored warm solutions into the weekend which are most prevalent within in the Euro suite, however some GFS member have trended this way as well. Additional detail will be available in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Patchy MVFR conditions due to visibility in fog, and possibly some smoke contributions, were across central IA at 06z. However additional stratus and fog is anticipated south and east into much of Tuesday creating more widespread MVFR conditions as the weak low level cyclonic flow persists across the MS Valley. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Small