Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
452 FNUS21 KWNS 111644 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$