Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 211624
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes
required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to
portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather
conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow
regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into
the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near
15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be
greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are
receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further
north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness.
Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes
additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for
additional details regarding other fire weather concerns.

..Moore.. 03/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during
the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of
the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and
windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated
conditions are expected to be more localized.

...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle...
A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day
today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and
vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry,
downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating,
widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are
possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current
guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for
1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area.


...West TX...
Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the
wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield
strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph
by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather
conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity
reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting
precipitation moving through the region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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