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000
FXUS63 KEAX 212326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to fall back into the mid 30s tonight
across central into eastern Missouri. Frost advisory in effect.

- Showers, possibly with a few lightning strikes are expected Monday
night across northern Missouri.  No severe weather is expected.

- More active pattern returns to the region late week, with the
  potential of severe weather Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

As of 19Z, 1028 mb surface high was centered across south central
Kansas.  This system is expected to shift south and east into the
lower Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning.  As the ridge axis
shifts southeast, expect southwest winds to increase especially
after midnight.  With dry airmass in place, expect temperatures to
fall quickly through the evening hours, and then fall a bit slower
after midnight.  Have opted to issue a small frost advisory for
central Missouri along and east of highway 65 where the influence of
the southwest winds will be less and temperatures are expected to
fall into the mid 30s.

Breezy conditions are expected Monday as tightening pressure gradient
allows 30-35 knots at 925 hpa to mix to the surface.  Have nudged
forecast highs near 75 percentile of guidance across eastern
KS/western Missouri.

Upper trough, under the influence of the northern branch of the
upper jet moves into the Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday.
This could lead to some shower activity across northern Missouri
Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Farther south along and south of
the I-70 corridor, will be harder to get measurable precipitation
with saturation above 10K feet agl and a dry subcloud layer.

Cold front associated with this low spinning through the Upper
Midwest moves through the region Monday night leading to cooler
conditions midweek.

Warmer and breezier conditions return Thursday as southerly flow
develops ahead of an intensifying trough moving from the
southwestern US into the central US by Friday.  Wide open gulf will
lead to increasing moisture and instability ahead of this system.
Potential to see some elevated storms develop Thursday night as low
level moisture increases taking advantage of steep mid-level lapse
rates.  Potential for a more significant severe weather event on
Friday as low lifts through the Northern Plains and trailing cold
front approaches the region late day.  LREF Ensemble indicates a
ribbon of instability and shear with 60 -70 percent of members
suggesting greater than 500 J/kg of SB Cape and greater than 30
knots of bulk shear. Area continues to be outlined in Day 6 outlook
by SPC. Warm and unstable conditions continue into the weekend as
additional waves associated with upper trough across the western US
eject into the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will be
light through evening/overnight hours, though will trend to the
south as a surface high moves just southeast of the area.
Tomorrow, high clouds increase, especially across northern MO,
and winds become strong and gusty from the south. By the
afternoon winds of 20kts gusting to 30 kts are likely. There may
be enough moisture to get a few to scattered diurnal CU to
develop in the afternoon. Bases would be near 5000 ft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MOZ007-008-016-
     017-022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB