975
AXPZ20 KNHC 030824
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N85W to 05N98W, then
resumes near 13N96W to 05N116W. The ITCZ continues from 05N116W
to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N and
E of 98W, and from 04N to 13N between 104W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters
of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate northerly winds persist off Baja California.
Altimeter data indicated combined seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly
beyond 90 nm offshore and reaching as far south as almost off
Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with
moderate seas in NW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into tonight, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate
combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and
seas will diminish off Baja California this weekend as the high
pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. Looking
ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte
offshore waters by late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. Large
NW swell may follow the front.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture
continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms
over off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds over much of the
area. Southerly swell continues to generate seas of 4-6 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week,
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern
California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh N
winds north of 27N and east of 125W. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds are expected in the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ
and west of 130W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-9 ft north of
the ITCZ and west of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the overall
weather pattern or resultant conditions today. Winds and seas
will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of
the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will move south of 30N late Sat, then gradually weaken as it
moves southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon.
Farther south, southerly swell of 8-9 ft will get almost as far
north as the equator between 110W and 120W this weekend, before
subsiding.

$$
ERA