306
FXUS64 KEPZ 291123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Continued dry conditions can be expected with breezy afternoons
each day through the work week. In addition, temperatures will
remain near average with Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest
days of the period. A cool front will push in late Thursday into
Friday morning but will only bring a few degree difference of high
temperatures. Moisture will push in behind the front which could
bring showers/thunderstorms heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Generally zonal upper level flow today and tomorrow allowing for
quiet and dry weather to persist. Surface winds will be
southwesterly to westerly allowing for temperatures to continue on
a warming trend. In addition, we can expect generally light afternoon
breezes each day thanks to fairly weak lee troughing in SE CO/NE
NM. Heading into Wednesday, upper flow becomes more southwesterly
over the area which will help keep warm temperatures around
another day as warm and dry air continues to be pumped in. El Paso
may see a second 90+ degree day on Wednesday. A bit stronger
winds in the upper levels will create a bit deeper lee troughing
in SE CO/NE NM than what we`re expecting earlier this week. What
this means for us is a bit stronger winds that afternoon that what
we`ll see today and tomorrow. Not expecting wind advisory level
winds but can generally expect 15-25MPH sustained winds areawide.

By Thursday, another standard breezy afternoon can be expected. A
cool front will be headed south and should enter the CWA from the
north late Thursday into Friday morning. A secondary east push is
possible overnight into Friday which may allow breezy winds on
west facing slopes that morning. The front will also bring in
moisture into the area. Unfortunately, this won`t translate to
much of a cool down for the area--but instead just a few degree
drop in high temperatures can be expected. Another standard
breezy day is expected Friday afternoon which will relax after
sunset. The Borderland will continue it`s dry streak yet another
day.

Possible showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in the
Sacramento Mtns, eastern Otero county, and Hudspeth. Timing of
ingredients is not ideal for storm chances but will be something
to monitor in the coming days. Otherwise, breezy afternoon winds
continue with gradual warming of temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with clear
skies. Expect generally VRB06KT through 18Z where low end
breeziness will be seen through the afternoon. By around 02Z,
winds become calm once again with VRB or westerly wind directions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Near average temperatures expected through Saturday with the
warmest days being Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions will
persist through the work week with our next potential shot for
storms being Saturday afternoon but generally low confidence if
this will happen. The Sacramento Mtns, eastern Hudspeth and Otero
counties will have the best chance to see storms if this forecast
does hold true.

Generally low fire weather concerns today and tomorrow as we can
expect low end southwesterly/westerly breezes both afternoons.
However, critical RH values will be seen areawide both days. Near
critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon
as critical minRH values remain (lowlands will be in the single
digits and the mountains in the low teens). Fuel moisture and min
RH values will reach Red Flag criteria but wind speeds appear to
be borderline. Will be something to watch as newer model data
comes in. Fuels will continue to dry out Thursday, min RH`s are
still very low (single digits in the lowlands and low teens in the
mountains), but winds aren`t expected to be quite as breezy
compared to Wednesday which will relieve some of the fire danger
threat but can expect elevated conditions that afternoon.

A cool front will push in late Thursday into Friday morning
switching winds northerly and then easterly. Temperatures will
drop only a few degrees from the front but will bring in much
better moisture to the area Friday but only for locations east of
the Rio Grande Valley. Values will stay at or slightly above/below
critical thresholds. Winds should stay low end breezy, decreasing
the fire weather threat that afternoon.

Ventilation rates will be good to very good today, very good to
excellent tomorrow, then excellent Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  58  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            80  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               84  52  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               79  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               57  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    80  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              74  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   82  47  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                80  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       82  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                84  46  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             85  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               75  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   84  53  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             80  49  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            80  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    83  47  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 82  52  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                79  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  72  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                69  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 67  40  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  74  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  47  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                80  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             75  42  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   77  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    80  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               76  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  76  47  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   82  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  81  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           81  48  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               76  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher