607
FNUS74 KEPZ 012011
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GIla National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
211 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The pattern Thursday into Friday will keep fire weather conditions slightly
elevated with winds in the 10-15 mph range with min RH near 15% in the
afternoons. Winds may be higher above the tree line than down at the surface
Winds will weaken overnight with RH values recovering into the
30-40 percent range. Ventilation rates will stay good to very good during
the daytime, but will drop to overnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 12 mph shifting to the west
                    around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (125300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      5      10     10
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     61     66     68     68
RH..............31     21     17     14     15
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 6   W 9    W 11   W 11
20 ft wind gust.12     12     16     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   9100   9100   10300  10300
Transport wind..NW 12  W 10   W 10   W 13   W 13
Haines index....2      3      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37     80     80     125    125
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 11 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (120200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (3900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........8      8      6      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     55     50     46     43     41
RH..............17     26     30     36     40     45
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  W 7    W 3    W 3    SW 2
20 ft wind gust.18     18     16     9      9      6
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   8600   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 15   W 15   W 10   W 10   W 7    W 7
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..120    120    4      4      4      4
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (152300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (175700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         3         4         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        53        64        69
RH..............48        29        15        12
20 FT wind......SW 2G6    W 5G13    SW 10G18  SW 12G21
Mix hgt (ft)....4900      4900      10200     11000
Transport wind..W 9       W 9       SW 16     SW 18
Haines index....3         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54        54        152       176
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...BARHAM
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412708.3/EPZ
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov