373
FXUS62 KFFC 281827
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
227 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and partly cloudy skies will continue on Monday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are be possible Monday
   night and Tuesday in north Georgia, with more isolated activity
   south of Interstate 20.

Monday through Tuesday:

An upper level ridge and associated surface high off the coast of
the Carolinas will produce quiet and dry weather in Georgia on
Monday. Expect widespread fair weather cumulus in the afternoon,
highs in the lower 80s and southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.

A weak shortwave trough will tack though the Tennessee Valley and
Appalachians Monday night and Tuesday. As this feature moves through
rain and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) will develop in our region.
Rainfall should be most widespread in the mountains of northern
Georgia, with precipitation becoming much spottier south of
Interstate 20. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) ahead
of this system could lead to decent SBCAPE profiles if it weren`t
for projected surface dewpoints being in the upper 50s. Due to this
limited instability potential, any stronger convection should be
limited with this system. If any stronger storms do occur they would
be most probable during peak heating Tuesday afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week
   into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through
the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering
showers and thunderstorms in the SE Tue evening and again Wed, this
ridge should usher in a couple of days of dry weather. This will
also be the warmest stretch of the long term period, with
temperatures rising well into 80s across most non-mountainous areas.
In fact, some locations will rise above 90 degrees (with the best
chance on Thursday afternoon near and S of Macon). These highs will
will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the
approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the
fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized
thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will
still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and ceilings AOA 4000 ft
AGL) and east to southeast winds (3 to 12 kt from 100-150 degrees)
will prevail in the region through 09Z Monday. Areas of IFR or
MVFR ceilings (600-2500 ft AGL) may develop after 09Z, with any
coverage being highest between 10Z and 13Z Monday. Winds should
become southerly at 5 to 10 kt after 14Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the KATL TAF.
There greatest area of uncertainty in the TAF is the potential
for IFR/MVFR ceilings between 09Z and 14Z Monday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  80  59  81 /   0   0  20  40
Atlanta         59  81  63  80 /   0   0  30  50
Blairsville     52  77  57  73 /   0   0  40  70
Cartersville    58  83  61  79 /   0  10  50  60
Columbus        61  84  64  84 /   0  10  20  40
Gainesville     56  79  61  78 /   0   0  30  50
Macon           58  83  62  84 /   0   0  10  40
Rome            59  83  62  79 /   0  10  60  60
Peachtree City  58  82  62  81 /   0   0  30  50
Vidalia         58  85  62  86 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Albright