Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 281146
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
746 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The cold front has cleared the forecast area with rain activity
expected to finally diminish. A shortwave embedded within the 500-mb
flow will move across the area today will help the front continue to
progress east bringing mostly clear skies and warm temperatures in
the 60s and 70s. Some moisture in the mid levels will linger over
parts of eastern central Georgia today producing cloud coverage in
these locations through the afternoon and may limit daytime maximum
temperatures into the upper 60s. As the post frontal airmass settles
into the forecast area, dry surface conditions (reflected in the
dewpoint field) are expected. Meteorological conditions (relative
humidities at 25% or less for 4 or more hours and strong northwest
winds between 15 and 20 mph gusting between 25 and 30 mph) for
critical fire weather are present today for a significant portion of
the forecast area. However, only a few locations are expected to meet
the fuel moisture threshold for a Fire Danger Statement. For now, a
handful of our northeastern counties in the mountains are under a
Fire Danger Statement. Should fuel moistures rapidly dry this
morning, other locations may need to be considered for a Fire Danger
Statement. Winds are expected to remain sub-advisory criteria, but a
few locations along the highest ridge tops in mountainous terrain
could see isolated gusts approaching 35 mph.
Overnight tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s and low
40s areawide. Under clear skies and calm conditions, a few areas of
patchy frost may briefly develop. However, given the fleeting nature
of necessary atmospheric conditions for frost formation, have held
off on a Frost Advisory with this forecast package. Temperatures will
warm quickly into the low 70s on Friday as high pressure builds in
from the west at the surface. NW winds will gradually become SW
throughout the day and will be much calmer than today. With the dry
post frontal airmass still in place and with fuel moistures having
the opportunity to dry out today, tomorrow presents yet another
chance for dangerous fire conditions areawide.
KAL
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The first portion of the long term period will be characterized by a
high pressure system centered over FL and the Bahamas, and
mid-/upper-level ridging over the Southeast. Winds will be westerly
to southwesterly as the forecast area is situated on the northern
fringes of the high. This setup will promote gradually increasing
temperatures and dew points Saturday through Monday. High
temperatures will generally be in the low-/mid-80s on Sunday and
Monday. While it will be dry, the increasing dew points will preclude
hazardous fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday. That said,
fire weather conditions (relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer
fuel moistures) will bear watching on Saturday.
For early Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, the GEFS and EPS
depict a positively-tilted mid-/upper-level trough traversing the
Southeast, while the CMCE depicts a less-pronounced trough passing
over as a cut-off low develops over the Four Corners region. The
differences in the placement/dynamics of the trough among the
ensemble guidance has an impact on where the primary area of low
pressure develops and moves, and thus the timing and intensity of
precipitation across the forecast area. Did not stray much from the
NBM guidance for PoPs, so not much change has been made from the
previous forecast package in this respect. Have included a slight
chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as
the GEFS and CMCE are progging up to ~25% chance for CAPE >1000 J/kg,
with good agreement amongst the GEFS members. The GEFS, EPS, and
CMCE are also progging >60 kts of bulk shear. Putting these
ingredients together, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected
with the potential for stronger storms with gusty to damaging winds.
The QPF is widespread 0.25" to 0.75" with 1.0" to 1.5" across
portions of far north GA.
Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions at most TAF sites with BKN/SCT high cloud deck. AHN
will continue to see intermittent periods of LIFR/IFC cigs/vsbys over
the next couple of hours. MCN could also see intermittent MVFR cigs
this morning. SCT/BKN050-060 return after 15Z before improving to SKC
by the afternoon. NW winds will increase to 10-13 KT gusting between
20-23KT after sunrise this morning and will drop off at or just
after sunset. NW winds will slacken to 5KT or less through the
remainder of the TAF period.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.
KAL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 40 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 42 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 34 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 36 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 42 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 40 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 42 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 37 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 39 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 43 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
$$
SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...KAL