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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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000
FNUS72 KFFC 150906
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for A.H. Stephens State Park Unit 2...Georgia Dept. Nat. Res. PHS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Clear to mostly clear conditions expected at the burn site today,
with only passing high cirrus to contend with (unlikely to impact
mixing). Minimum relative humidity will be a touch higher this
afternoon, bottoming out between 26-27 percent. 20-ft winds will
pick up out of the west at 5-7 mph by 9-10 AM this morning, and
will shift slightly to the southwest at 8-9 mph by 2PM. Transport
winds will follow a similar trend, out of the west at 10-15 mph
this morning, shifting and increasing to the southwest at 14-17
mph by 3PM. Mixing heights look to peak between 5-6kft between 4
and 5 PM, supportive of very good ventilation rates.

Overnight, expect a gradual increase in cloud cover to partly
cloudy skies, with mostly cloudy skies expected by 1-2 PM Tuesday.
LVORI of 2 and maximum relative humidity overnight between 75 and
80 percent means low chances of fog development. 20-ft winds will
be lighter overall on Tuesday, picking up out of the southwest at
5-6 mph by noon, then shifting to the south at 6-7 mph. Transport
winds initially west at 9-11 mph at 10-11 AM will shift to the
southwest and increase to 12-15 mph by 3-4 PM. Tomorrow, slightly
less favorable mixing heights of 4-5kft support good ventilation
rates.

Additionally, both today and tomorrow will be unseasonably warm
across Taliaferro County, with highs between 84 and 87 degrees
each day.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 17 mph.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................45 early in the morning increasing to 113 in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   0   0   0   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............75  79  81  83  84  85  84
RH..............47  41  35  31  29  27  27
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.13  14  15  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  15  16  17  17
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............45  59  81  91  101 112 113
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................71 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   7   10  9   4   7   6   11  11  11  22  22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............83  80  75  71  69  66  65  64  63  62  61  59
RH..............29  33  44  50  53  58  58  60  62  65  69  73
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  13  10  9   9   9   9   10  9   8   8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  10  7   6   6   7   7   7   7   6   6   5
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............71  6   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
Haines index....6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming southwest
                    5 to 7 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon shifting to the south around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 54 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  22  39  41  46  48  51  58  61  60  57  55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  59  59  65  71  76  78  80  81  82  82  83
RH..............75  76  78  68  58  51  45  40  37  35  35  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   7   6   7   8   8   9   10  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.7
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   3   5   7   9   12  10  10  9   10  13  14
LVORI...........3   4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............2   4   4   7   20  31  37  37  35  42  50  54
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...LMarlow
Requested by...Phil Delestrez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410813.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Phil.Delestrez@dnr.ga.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
