Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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335 FXUS65 KFGZ 040508 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1008 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. Slight chance for isolated showers along the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday, elsewhere will remain mostly dry. Elevated winds will continue through much of next week, and warm/dry conditions will persist. && .UPDATE...Winds are decreasing this evening, with the remnants of some high-based cumulus persisting in northeast Arizona. Look for overnight lows similar to last night`s values. The deep low pressure system set to really increase our winds this weekend is starting to move onshore the Pac NW and northern California this evening. A High Wind Watch is in effect for most of northern AZ on Sunday, be prepared for strong and possibly damaging winds. Current forecasts are in good shape this evening with no updates needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION /453 PM MST/...Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoon winds and mostly dry conditions have been our main song and dance for the last several days. Our tune will shift over the weekend, as a strong low-pressure system slides down the Great Basin region. The first indication of this invading pressure system will be increasing winds on Saturday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 25-35 mph, throughout the afternoon. Stronger winds may be present along our Mohave County border, and elevated winds look to continue overnight for many areas along higher terrain. Sunday is when the main impacts of this storm system will unveil. Gusty southwest winds will start around 7AM MST/8AM MDT and continue through at least 9PM MST/10PM MDT. Gusty in this case is referring to sustained winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts between 45-65 mph. Keep in mind, winds might not jump to these high of speeds first thing in the morning, but will continue to increase throughout the morning/afternoon. As a result of these strong winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of northern Arizona for Sunday. Hazards may include, but are not limited to, difficult travel for high profile vehicles, power outages, and areas of blowing dust. Strong/damaging winds are not the only point of focus for Sunday though. There is also a near-critical to critical fire weather concern for portions of eastern Arizona. Relative humidity values do increase slightly on Sunday, but even so, there are still some areas that will be very susceptible to rapid fire starts/spreads. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday for areas near Eagar, Springerville and St. Johns. This watch is valid between 11AM MST/12PM MDT to 7PM MST/8PM MDT. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch and/or the Fire Weather Watch. Early next week, this storm system will push northeast and allow a zonal flow to return over northern Arizona. Temperatures will slowly warm from Sunday, but still remain a couple degree below normal through the middle of next week. Winds will also remain gusty near our eastern border with the exit of the storm system, but typical spring-like breezes should return for much of next week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 04/06Z through Sunday 05/06Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Light and variable wind overnight through most of Saturday morning. South-southwest winds gradually increasing after 17Z, reaching sustained speeds 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/06Z through Tuesday 07/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds late Saturday night into Sunday, along with a 10-30% chance of light rain or snow showers along/north of a KGCN-KRQE line Sunday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 kts Saturday night, strengthening to 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. Winds gradually decreasing Sunday night, with west winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. Saturday will see afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. On Sunday much stronger winds develop becoming southwest at 20 to 30 mph gusting of 40 to 55 mph before noon. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday over far east Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of east central Arizona. Monday through Wednesday...Dry and a bit warmer. Westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ004>017-039-040. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/Konieczny AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff