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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142344
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
444 PM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds and
cooler temperatures this evening with isolated showers late
tonight and Monday. Temperatures will warm through the rest of
the week with lighter winds. The warmest daytime temperatures of
the year so far are expected from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure extends from south-
central California to north-central Nevada this afternoon. This
has brought gusty winds and cooler temperatures northern Arizona
today. Winds will remain gusty into this evening then decrease
some. Most areas will continue to see breezy conditions through
the night with winds increasing again on Monday and becoming more
westerly to northwesterly. Moisture will increase over northern
Arizona through Monday with isolated showers late tonight and
Monday. A thunderstorm or two are not out of the question late
Monday morning into Sunday evening...north of I-40. Moisture is
limited with this system so significant rainfall/high elevation
snow is not expected. Daytime temperatures will drop Monday another
5 to 10 degrees from today.

The trough of low pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday
with daytime temperatures rebounding rather quickly, about 10
degrees warmer than Monday. We will continue to see daytime temperatures
warm through the week...with some of the warmest temperatures of
the year so far by Wednesday...through next weekend. Winds will be
generally light on Tuesday...then southwest breezes (10-20 MPH)
each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/18Z through Monday 15/18Z...Predominantly
VFR conditions through the period. SW winds gusting 25-35 kts
persisting until ~02Z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Winds
won`t totally decouple tonight though. Winds increasing again
after 16Z Monday, becoming more westerly. A few isolated showers
are possible after 18Z Monday, which could produce brief MVFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...VFR conditions
through the extended period. Any isolated shower activity from
Monday afternoon won`t persist into the extended period. Much
lighter, westerly winds for Tuesday, becoming SW Wednesday and
increasing slightly with winds 10-20G15-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday evening through Tuesday...For Sunday
evening, expect southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph and gusts from
30 to 40 mph. Winds will decrease overnight, but not fully
decouple. Cooler temperatures Monday, with isolated convective
showers during the afternoon. Winds Monday turning more westerly,
15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph over the eastern zones.
Turning warmer and dry Tuesday, with west through southwest winds
10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Turning much warmer and dry, with west
through southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff