356
FXUS64 KFWD 062304
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
604 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Tonight through Tuesday/

A few light showers have developed across the region late this
afternoon. These showers are forming underneath a cap of warm air
aloft and will likely not be able to tap into the unstable air
above the cap. There is still a small chance that the cap could
break, mainly across the north/northwest where clouds have
scattered out this afternoon. If any storms do develop, they will
quickly intensify.

The current forecast as detailed below is in good shape so no
major changes are needed at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday afternoon/

An active start of the week for portions of the southern Plain
especially across Oklahoma and Kansas where there is a moderate
and high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The threat for our area remains highly conditional, given the
fact that we`re still fairly capped (based on the latest ACARs
soundings). With a highly buoyant environment (2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE), IF storms are able to develop they will likely become
severe with very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
While areas generally north of I-20 (especially near the Red
River) have the greatest threat for severe storms, we can`t rule
out the potential for a strong to marginally severe storm farther
south. We still think this is a low confidence/low coverage, but
potentially high impact event if storms develop. Most of the
activity should stay north of our area this evening and tonight
as the strong ascent associated with the cold front moves
eastward/southward, but the window to pay attention for our area
will be roughly between 3-10 pm. The best advice is to stay
weather aware and make sure to have multiple ways to receive
weather alerts in case a warning is issued.

The cold front should continue to push eastward overnight into
Tuesday but it will lose its push over our region as it gets
detached from the main upper level system. The main impact for us
will be a brief wind shift to the north Tuesday morning, but
winds will likely return to the south by the afternoon. Otherwise,
no additional rain is expected with clearing skies behind the
front into the afternoon. With the lack of any cool air advection
and clearing skies, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be warm and
likely reach the mid to upper 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

Temperatures well above normal will continue on Wednesday as an
upper-level ridge settles in across the Southern Plains. Further
supporting this mid-week warmth will be our southwesterly winds,
which will aid in allowing afternoon highs on Wednesday to climb
into the upper 80s and lower 90s across North and Central Texas.
With dew points hanging out in the low to mid 70s, heat indices
will quickly approach the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across
Central Texas may even reach the 100 degree heat index mark.
While this sort of heat is not necessarily unprecedented for this
time of year, it will be important to keep an eye on friends and
loved ones who may be a bit more vulnerable to heat illness.

The other major talking point for this forecast involves the
continued potential for showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the week. Our best potential will be through the afternoon and
evening hours on both Wednesday and Thursday. Much of this
activity will fire off along and east of the I-35 corridor, across
both North and Central Texas. The environment will remain
supportive of severe weather, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates and plenty of atmospheric instability to work with.
Sufficient shear for storm organization will also exist, leading
to our main threats including large hail and damaging winds. On
top of this, antecedent conditions remain conducive for additional
flooding concerns and will need to be closely monitored across
portions of Central Texas. There is quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the exact spatial coverage of thunderstorms as we are
still a few days out. Details will continue to be refined over the
next several days regarding this potential for severe weather
through the middle of the week, so continue to check back for
updates to the forecast as we move into the week ahead.

Much cooler and drier weather will return to the entire forecast
area as a cold front sweeps through North and Central Texas. Highs
through the weekend will cool into the mid to upper 70s through
the afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. This
will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms toward
the end of the weekend. As an aside, we are approaching that time
of year where the days with cool, continental air are numbered.
While it`s hard to say if this will be our last substantial cold
front of the season, the odds for additional cold fronts as we
move into the year are decreasing. Enjoy it while you can!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Other than some brief high end MVFR ceilings early this evening,
cloud bases will remain roughly between 3500 and 6000 ft. MVFR
ceilings will quickly return overnight with the development of a
40+ knot low level jet. The strength of the jet will likely keep
ceilings above 1000 ft, but Waco could briefly fall to IFR
towards sunrise. Unlike the past several mornings, stratus will
quickly scatter out after sunrise Tuesday once drier air arrives
behind a cold front.

A breezy south wind will prevail overnight between 13 and 20
knots along with some gusts near 30 knots. Wind speeds will fall
just ahead of the front while turning to the southwest around
sunrise and west/northwest by mid morning. Post-frontal wind
speeds should stay around or just below 12 knots.

It appears a cap of warm air aloft will prevent thunderstorm
formation at any of our TAF sites tonight but severe storms are
already ongoing well north of the Red River in Oklahoma.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  87  72  89  65 /  10   0   0  20  20
Waco                72  87  71  88  68 /  10   5   0  20  10
Paris               71  85  69  85  61 /  20   5   5  40  40
Denton              67  85  69  88  60 /  10   0   0  20  20
McKinney            71  87  70  87  63 /  20   0   5  20  30
Dallas              72  88  72  90  66 /  10   0   0  20  20
Terrell             73  86  70  86  64 /  10   0   5  30  30
Corsicana           73  86  73  88  69 /  10   0   0  20  20
Temple              71  87  71  89  69 /  10   5   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       63  86  69  89  61 /   5   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$