Text Products for FWS Issued by GSP

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS72 KGSP 171130
FWSGSP

Spot Forecast for Big Witch...BIA
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The NC mountains will find themselves in an increasingly moist regime
today as a cold front works across the Ohio Valley, arriving by evening.
A lack of especially dry air aloft today may be the limiting factor for
fire weather this afternoon.  There`s indeed a slot of dry air above the
mixing layer, but it`s not as pronounced as it`d be to maximize dewpoint
mixing, and so the forecast min RH is already generous.  And, with
increasing cloud cover, it seems like it will be difficult to get better
mixing than the advertised ~4000ft or so maximum at the burn site.

Low-level winds will be out of the southwest for much of the day.  By mid
afternoon, the chance of at least some isolated sprinkles or light showers
will increase.  Although measurable rainfall isn`t expected until later in
the afternoon - after 4pm or so - even smaller showers will make winds more
erratic and tough to pin down.  Transport winds will increase above 20kts
by afternoon, supporting good smoke ventilation.

As always, feel free to contact the office with additional questions or if
the spot starts to become inaccurate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    sprinkles early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest 16
                    to 24 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (78700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................10 early in the morning increasing to 67 in the
                    afternoon.
Stability class.....3.
Pcpn amount.........0.11 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........25000 decreasing to 8000 late in the morning.
Visibility (SM).....10.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.58.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  72  67  75  84  80  83  84  82  86  91
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............59  59  59  61  62  64  65  66  66  65  63
Dewpoint........48  49  50  50  50  48  47  45  45  45  45
RH..............66  68  72  68  64  57  52  46  46  48  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   13  15  15  15  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.8   9   12  16  18  20  21  23  22  22  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.1 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   12  17  22  23  23  24  23  21  16
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............10  10  16  42  52  57  59  64  63  67  39
VRate kt-ft/10004   5   11  29  56  64  69  78  79  56  28
Ceiling (hft)...250 250 250 250 110 110 110 100 100 100 80
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sfc pres (in)...666 667 665 664 663 662 662 662 661 659 658

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southeast overnight, then becoming light after
                    3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 7 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 19.
Stability class.....5.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........7000 increasing to 25000 late in the evening.
Visibility (SM).....9.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.59.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........91  89  92  91  90  86  59  45  46  38  32  27
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Temp............62  59  58  57  56  56  56  55  54  54  53  53
Dewpoint........46  47  47  47  47  48  49  49  49  50  49  50
RH..............55  64  67  69  72  74  78  82  83  86  87  89
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SE  S   E   SE  E
20 FT wind spd..10  10  9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.17  16  14  12  9   8   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  10  10  10  9   8   8   7   7   7
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6
ADI.............19  11  10  9   7   7   6   4   5   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100013  9   7   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
Ceiling (hft)...80  70  70  70  80  250 250 250 250 250 250 250
Visibility (sm).10  9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sfc pres (in)...659 660 661 662 662 663 662 662 661 661 661 660

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (42400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 58 in the
                    afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........25000 increasing to 27000 in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 10000 late in the afternoon.
Visibility (SM).....10.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.57.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  10  7   2   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  53  54  59  62  66  69  71  73  74  74  75
Dewpoint........49  49  49  50  51  51  50  47  45  45  45  45
RH..............86  87  81  72  67  60  51  43  36  36  35  34
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  N   NW  W   W   SW  W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   2   3   5   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                3   5   6   7   7   8   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
LVORI...........6   4   4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   7   6   6   12  18  26  33  41  45  50  58
VRate kt-ft/10003   3   2   4   8   12  17  23  29  32  36  42
Ceiling (hft)...250 250 250 250 250 250 300 270 270 270 300 100
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sfc pres (in)...662 663 664 664 665 665 664 663 662 660 659 657

$$
Forecaster...Mike Rehnberg
Requested by...Sean Weston
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410923.1/GSP
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
