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000
FXUS64 KHGX 130447
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Comfortable weather out there for April standards with mostly
sunny skies, light to moderate winds and low humidity. Sfc high
pressure will continue to move eastward, shifting winds to a more
southeasterly component this afternoon and evening. Dry weather
continues as subsidence aloft strengthen with the passing of the
upper-level ridge axis tonight. A few shortwaves embedded along
the ridge will move tonight; though with strong subsidence only
high clouds can be expected. Overnight lows into the upper 50s to
low 60s degF range can be expected.

A surface low pressure will develop across the Northern
Rockies/High Plains, tightening the pressure gradient over the
Plains on Saturday. Looking at 850mb, models also continue to
suggest a strengthening LLJ over the region, allowing for breezy
conditions at the surface and and a moderate surge of low-level
moisture. With that being said, Saturday is shaping up to be dry
and slightly warmer with breezy south to southeast winds, mainly
in the afternoon. Highs into the upper 70s to low 80s can be
expected. Ridging aloft will temporarily weaken by Saturday night
as the trough moves through the Plains. This will result in
increasing low-moisture and persistent southerly surface flow;
thus, a mild night can be expected with lows mainly in the 60s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Pleasant weather should continue on Sunday and into beginning of
next week as ridging remains in place aloft. Surface high pressure
over the SE CONUS keeps onshore flow in place, allowing for
temperatures to rise over the next several days as humid gulf air
is funneled into SE Texas. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper
70s to mid 80s with Monday morning lows in the 60s. An upper level
trough should fill in over the Four Corners/Plains during the
first half of the upcoming work week. PWs are progged to reach
1.2-1.6" around this time. Weak impulses and a 30-40 knot LLJ will
provide some support for storm development during the
afternoon/evening hours as these features move in from the west
ahead of an approaching cold front/dry line. However, robust
capping around 925-850mb still appears to largely suppress rain
chances ahead of this frontal boundary in SE Texas. Furthermore,
current guidance indicates that this cold front will slow/stall
over portions of the Brazos Valley during the early morning hours
of Tuesday.

Capping looks to weaken in areas closer to this stalled boundary
on Tuesday, enough to allow some isolated showers/storms to
develop/move into the north/northwestern fringes of our CWA.
Rising instability/shear and forcing from the aforementioned
frontal boundary could provide enough support for a few stronger
storms to develop in these locations on Tuesday, especially with
support from the LLJ still in place and PWs pooling to 1.6-2.0"
ahead of the boundary. The rest of SE Texas appears to be
sufficiently capped to suppress rain chances on Tuesday, allowing
the warming trend to continue into Wednesday. Highs will be in the
80s with isolated locations reaching the 90 degree mark.
Meanwhile, overnight lows for mid-week will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The stalled boundary looks to drift north slightly on
Wednesday, while weaker impulses pass over SE Texas. Even though
PWs will still be in the range of 1.0-1.6 inches, dry conditions
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may evaporate any
precipitation that does develop aloft.

Long range guidance indicates that another upper level trough
will swing across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes on
Thursday. This system is progged to push a cold front through SE
Texas late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as a broad
1038-1042mb surface high drops into the Rockies/Plains. Highs for
Thursday will depend on the timing of this FROPA. Compressional
heating could bring warmer temperatures in areas where the FROPA
occurs after peak heating. Cooler, drier and breezier weather can
be expected across the region by Friday morning behind the front.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Light S-SE
winds will continue tonight, increasing to 12-18 KTS with gusts
of around 24-28 KTS Sat afternoon. Winds will slowly relax Sat
evening. There is a chance for the development of MVFR clouds Sat
night into early Sun morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Onshore flow should strengthen over the weekend, potentially
warranting caution flags at times. PETSS guidance indicates water
levels in the bays dropping 0.8ft below MLLW overnight into early
Saturday morning with low tide. Low water advisories could be
warranted, though strengthening onshore winds could keep water
levels above the -1.0ft threshold. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed on Monday night & Tuesday as winds approach 15 to 25 knots
and seas reach 5 to 7 feet.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  82  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  57  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  67  76  69  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...24
MARINE...03