085
FXUS64 KHUN 021915
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging to the east of the area is beginning to deteriorate as a
weak shortwave in the MS Valley pushes east. For the remainder of
the day, high clouds will begin to filter in from the west
associated with the shortwave moving through the MS Valley. Dry
conditions will persist through nightfall with the earliest rain
chances arriving in NW AL after midnight. Rain and thunder chances
will gradually increase from west to east after midnight with
medium to high PoPs in place across the area by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

With the deterioration of mid level ridging, a more zonal flow
pattern will allow for several shortwaves to ripple through the
area through the duration of the short term and into the long
term. By morning on Friday, the first of these shortwaves will be
moving through the area. High (60-80%) rain chances will be
present in NW AL and progress east throughout the day. Best
chances for rain and storms currently look to be Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere will be very saturated and
favorable for efficient rainfall production with periods of heavy
rainfall possible all weekend. Friday there is a marginal risk
(1/4) for excessive rainfall, however with QPF amounts through the
weekend continuing to remain below an inch, the overall flooding
threat is low. Areas that experience periods of heavy rainfall
could see some brief nuisance flooding due to slow moving storms.
Aside from heavy rainfall, frequent lightning from elevated
thunderstorms will be the only other threat to outdoor activities
this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By
Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in
medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the
afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least
the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass
in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will
keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the
remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River
where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise
through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to
support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by
on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in
the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle
of the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will be present for the first half of the TAF
period at both terminals. Late tonight, rain will move in from the
west bringing prolonged periods of SHRA and MVFR ceilings. MVFR
conditions will likely develop at MSL first early tomorrow morning
and then continue to HSV later in the morning. Confidence in
prolonged MVFR conditions is high, however confidence in onset
timing in currently low. Additional TAF issuances will refine
onset timing of MVFR ceilings.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD