027
FXUS63 KICT 271730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely this afternoon through tonight with all
  hazards possible.

- Slight risk of severe lingers Sunday in southeast Kansas.

- Unsettled with convective potential again by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2024

Shallow moisture was returning early this morning with stratus
cigs accompanying the low to mid-60s dew points. Various short
term/convective allowing models continue to show a spread in
outcomes regarding convective evolution/trends mainly during the
daylight hours. There still is general support with some
timing/placement differences in convection developing toward
midday with the deeper low level moisture advection somewhere
along/just east of the I-135 corridor. The main question/concern
is how extensive in coverage this convection may become in the
uncapped and increasingly unstable airmass in the open warm
sector. If they remain somewhat more widely spaced (even though
not necessarily discrete) they will pose a higher probability
for large hail and a tornado given the impressive the hodographs
in the point forecast soundings. The dry-line will remain more
of a focus across west central Kansas during the mid to late
afternoon which poses another risk area of significant severe
weather/tornadoes. While somewhat more conditional, there
appears there could be a window for localized convergence in
concert with the stronger forcing for ascent ejecting out ahead
of the main upper trof. A third area of concern will be along
the warm front which will become quasi-stationary this afternoon
which looks to impact areas just north of the I-70 corridor.
There is much more confidence in the convective trends by later
this evening and tonight where the severe threat will
transition more into areas of locally heavy/training rainfall
across southeast Kansas where a Flood Watch will remain in
effect. The main upper low/trof will lift more bodily
northeastward on Sunday through Sunday night across the
Midwest/northern Plains. The surface cold front will merge with
the dry-line across eastern Kansas with a renewed severe risk
across southeast Kansas before exiting by Sunday evening.

Low level moisture will be shunted south of the area with dry
and seasonably mild weather expected for Monday, before
moisture returns by mid-week providing renewed precip/convective
chances across the area.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Plenty of concerns with the terminals as return flow ahead of a wavy
nearby frontal system and Rockies upper low were supplying
ammunition for the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight. Non-comvective low level wind shear along with gusts to
35 mph away from thunderstorms are also possible tonight along with
poor flying conditions in convection. In addition, winds of over 50
knots, large hail and tornadoes are also possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB