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000
FXUS62 KILM 210012
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
812 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms this evening will accompany a cold
front which will stall to our south tonight. Low pressure
developing along this front should lead to widespread rain
Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest
bringing dry weather back to the Carolinas by Monday night and
Tuesday and lasting through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 remains in effect until 10 PM EDT
tonight. Cold front continues to drop southward, and is located
about halfway down the local forecast area, spanning from
Florence County, SC to southern Pender County, NC. Severe
thunderstorms are ongoing, with the main focus now over the
South/North Carolina border near Horry and Columbus Counties.
Large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning are the main
risks still in play through the rest of the evening. Activity
will gradually decrease over the next few hours.

Elsewhere, updated 00Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front nearing our western counties and moving very slowly.
It`s slow movement will keep it roughly halfway across the area
through evening at which time it will initiate thunderstorms.
SPC has raised the areal coverage of the Marginal to include the
entire area, but there seems to be enough guidance showing a
higher likelihood in NC vs SC. Most convective indices are
already making out in SE NC boosting forecast confidence some.
Overnight convection will grow more shallow, possibly devoid of
thunder altogether especially north of the still southbound
boundary. The front will be offshore on Sunday with moisture
overrunning and an increase in channeled vorticity streaking
overhead, the end result a cloudy, much cooler day with periods
of light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Light rain ongoing Sunday night will gradually come to an end
overnight and into Monday morning. A secondary shortwave will
approach the area during the day on Monday, sparking the
development of a weak surface low offshore. A few showers will
possible along the coast during the afternoon as dry air aloft
works its way into central NC/SC. Light showers should come to
an end by the early evening as the quick-moving trough exits
offshore.

Dry air follows the shortwave as high pressure settles overhead
on Monday night. Areas west of I-95 could drop into the upper
30s while most areas fall into the low 40s. Clouds in NE flow
may develop and keep temperatures warmer near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures remain slightly below normal, rebounding
into the low and mid 70s. Warmer on Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front. This front will bring cooler temps for Thursday,
but transient high pressure positioned well north of the area
will keep the much cooler air far removed; highs in the low
70s. Ridging and offshore high pressure bring a warming trend on
Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface front is draped across the area right now. Most of the
activity is now east of KFLO and KLBT, but an isolated storm
could still hit these terminals over the next couple of hours.
Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of Horry
and Columbus Counties are moving toward KCRE and KMYR. TEMPO
groups in place at both these sites to indicate the timing of
the storm, where damaging winds and large hail are possible.
This activity should start leveling off over the next few hours
as it pushes offshore.

Ceilings are fluctuating between MVFR and IFR area-wide.
Stratiform rain then spreads west to east across the area
towards daybreak as the wind stabilizes to NE as the front
pushes offshore. IFR ceilings and rain should continue through
most of the day Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Flight categories gradually improve Sunday
night into Monday morning. High pressure building in late Monday
through Thursday will return dominant VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Southwesterly winds ahead of slowly
approaching cold front in the very near term. These light winds
will veer as the boundary approaching, turning onshore, and then
veer to the NE and stabilize on Sunday as it moves off the
coast. Diminutive wind waves and a weak E/SE swell will keep
the seas forecast capped at 2- 3 ft.

Sunday Night through Thursday Night... Northerly winds
increase behind the deepening surface low on Sunday night into
Monday morning. A few brief gusts to SCA thresholds are
possible. A secondary surface low develops on Monday, prolonging
the fetch of northerly winds. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet in
the prolonged fetch. Conditions improve on Tuesday behind the
exiting low and high pressure builds through much of next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/21