Text Products for ESF Issued by IWX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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FGUS73 KIWX 152218 CCA
ESFIWX

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 10.1 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 6.0 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid February 15 2024 - March 15, 2024...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    7.0  7.5  7.8  8.3  9.1 10.1 11.0


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    8.0  8.7  9.7 11.0 12.8 14.0 14.6
Knox IN             10    6.7  7.0  7.3  7.5  8.2  9.0  9.1


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.4  5.6  6.1  6.6  7.5  9.1 10.0
Mottville MI         8    4.9  5.1  5.6  6.1  6.8  8.7  9.3
Elkhart IN          24   20.9 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.4 26.0 26.6
South Bend IN      5.5    2.8  3.4  4.0  4.9  6.0  8.3  9.1
Niles MI            11    7.5  8.0  8.5  9.4 10.8 13.8 14.8


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    3.8  4.1  4.5  5.0  6.5  8.1  9.8
Cosperville IN       6    4.8  5.0  5.4  5.8  6.3  7.5  7.8


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Snow cover and river ice are
virtually absent due to the warmest 10 day start to February in
addition to a very mild winter. Soil moisture is a little above
normal due to a wet January over the St Joseph and the Upper
Kankakee basins with over 4 1/2 inches of rain or water equivalent
snow at South Bend.

...Weather Outlook... The generally mild pattern is expected to
persist into March with best chances for below normal precipitation.
Best chances are for near normal rainfall March through May.

...River Conditions... As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all
rivers were below action stage in the St Josepth and the Upper
Kankakee basins. No ice was present.


...Overall Flood Risk...
Overall flood risk is below normal through May.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on February
29th by 5 pm EST for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins.


$$
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