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000
FXUS62 KJAX 221045
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

After yesterday`s cold front, cool high pressure moves in from the
north and northwest today, while strong mid/upper level trough
expected to swing across through the forecast area. Breezy north
to northeast winds expected today near 10-20 mph, strongest at the
coast, with cloudiness this morning anticipated to diminish through
the afternoon hours as drier air filters in. Still just a slight
chance of a passing shower along the St Johns and Flagler county
coast during the 1st half of today. Highs today will be a good
8-12 degrees cooler than yesterday, with 70s most everywhere.

Tonight, mostly clear skies in the evening with northeast winds
of 5-15 mph, strongest at the coast. Winds will lighten overnight,
while directions back to more due north as some drainage type flow
develops. Lows were adjusted slightly downward from previous but
close to the NBM still with mid 40s north zones to upper 40s and
lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure will build overhead allowing for clear skies and a
warm up in temperatures following the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures Tuesday will stay just below normal in the 70s, with
most locations rising up to the lower 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak cold front will approach from the north on Thursday, however
conditions will be too dry for any precipitation potential. Temperatures
will stay warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day as southeasterly
winds fill in, keeping the coast a few degrees cooler than inland
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

MVFR ceilings 1.5-3 kft will continue to impact NE FL terminals
this morning, with bases becoming SCT-BKN and gradually rising
through 15-18z for most locations, except SGJ which will likely
be under MVFR conditions through 20-22z. Radar returns show
coastal drizzle, and included -DZ at SGJ this morning. As low
clouds begin to lift and break through the late morning, a deck of
mid level 9-10 kft clouds will be visible at times. VFR
conditions will prevail at SSI through the forecast period.
Passing SCT low clouds will continue across NE FL terminals
tonight (bases 4-5 kft) with high clouds increase aloft.

NNW winds this morning veer NNE through midday with a NE surge
into the late afternoon, which will increase gusts into the 20-25
kt range through early evening. Winds remain elevated tonight,
decreasing into the 5-11 kt range by 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Winds and seas increasing as expected with small craft advisories
beginning soon as the cold front shifts well south of the area.
So far, sustained north winds are noted to near 15-20 kt and seas
at the area buoys reading about 3-4 ft, and higher offshore would
assume. Only slight adjustments to the start and end time of the
advisories, mainly to broaden the time frame a bit. Winds and seas
should diminish Tuesday aftn as high pressure builds in.

High pressure moves east of the waters Wednesday resulting in
winds turning to the southeast and then south. Another frontal
boundary will move into the region on Thursday, but tend to weaken
and shift back north over the weekend, but these conditions
don`t support advisories at this time.

Rip Currents: As wind waves continue to grow today, increased
threats of rip currents and longshore currents expected for the
northeast FL beaches so have hoisted a high rip current risk.
The rip current risk was then extended into Tuesday, given the
rough surf that is still expected, and winds, though lighter,
will be directly onshore. Generally lower risk, at moderate
category for southeast GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Drier air will move in following the cold frontal passage as winds
turn northerly, dropping minRH to near 40% for most of inland SE
GA and NE FL today. By Tuesday, RH will drop further, with portions
of inland SE GA and NE FL seeing minRH values below 35%.
Dispersion values will be very high over inland SE GA and portions
of inland NE FL today, with values dropping significantly on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  46  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  69  54  71  57 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  72  51  74  54 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  70  57  74  56 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  75  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$