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000
FXUS62 KJAX 141530
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023
millibars) centered over the FL peninsula. Aloft...stout ridging
prevails over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico),
while deep troughing continues to progress well offshore of New
England and the Mid-Atlantic states. This weather pattern was
keeping a deep and dry northwesterly flow pattern in place, with a
weak shortwave trough embedded within this flow pattern located
upstream from our area across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. The very dry and subsident air mass in place was
resulting in sunny skies area-wide as of 15Z, with temperatures
rising through the 70s throughout our region. Dewpoints ranged
from the mid 40s to the low and mid 50s.

A loosening local pressure gradient will allow the development of
the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes this afternoon, with these
boundaries progressing well inland late this afternoon through
early this evening. Otherwise, the weak shortwave trough located
upstream of our region will dive southeastward this afternoon and
evening, with thin cirrus cloudiness increasing later today and
tonight from northwest to southeast across our area. Otherwise,
the dry air mass, rising heights aloft, and plenty of sunshine
will allow highs to climb to the mid 80s inland this afternoon,
while breezy onshore winds developing later this afternoon keep
coastal highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Mid and high altitude cloudiness will increase this evening and
overnight as the aforementioned shortwave trough progresses across
southeast GA, reaching the coast towards sunrise on Monday. A dry
low level air mass will otherwise remain in place, with winds
decoupling at inland locations after sunset, while a light south
to southwesterly breeze prevails overnight at coastal locations.
Strong subsidence beneath a building deep-layer ridge over our
area will allow lows to fall to the low and mid 50s at most inland
locations towards sunrise on Monday, with lows at coastal
locations in the upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday...High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic
continues just south of the region across the FL Peninsula and
with a weak steering flow from the West-Southwest will keep the
East Coast sea breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast and
allow for above normal highs under Mostly Sunny skies in the
mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Monday Night...High pressure ridge axis remains in place and
under mostly clear skies and near calm winds inland expect lows
in the mid/upper 50s and near 60 along the Atlantic Coast.

Tuesday...High pressure ridge axis retreats slightly eastward
into the Western Atlantic which allows for a more SE steering
flow to develop and surface SE winds will be slightly stronger
in the 10-15 mph range which will push the Atlantic coast sea
breeze inland to the US 301 corridor. Under mostly sunny skies
and dry conditions still expect max temps to remain above normal
in the mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s along the Atlantic
Coast.

Tuesday Night...High pressure ridge remains over the Western
Atlantic into the region at the surface, but expect an increase in
high level clouds which will lead to slightly milder overnight
lows in the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Above normal temps and mainly dry conditions are expected through
the period. Long range models are suggesting that the western
Atlantic high pressure ridge will settle just south of the region
with a series of weak fronts pushing through the SE US and washing
out across the NE FL/SE GA region through the end of the week,
slowly adding moisture to the atmosphere so by the weekend time
frame a slight chance of afternoon showers or isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as the sea breeze fronts push
inland. Max temps will generally be in the upper 80s to around 90
over inland areas each day, while the east coast sea breeze will
keep max temps in the lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast.
Some of the longer range MOS guidance is suggesting that a few
locations across inland areas could reach 90F for the 1st time
this year in the Thu/Fri/Sat time frame. Here is the average first
date for reaching 90F at local climate sites based on the last 30
years (1994-2023) climatology...Gainesville (GNV) FL is April 21,
Craig Executive Airport (CRG) in Duval County FL is April 22,
Jacksonville (JAX) FL is April 25, Alma (AMG) GA is May 2nd.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure stretches east southeast from Big Bend of northern
Florida to north central Florida this morning with very light
winds inland and variable at SSI/SGJ near 5 knots. High pressure
will slide eastward and linger just south of GNV and SGJ today
with winds variable through late morning due to light flow aloft
at around 5 knots then turns easterly by midday at SGJ. Sunny
skies expected into afternoon that will drive Atlantic seabreeze
into SGJ, SSI, and also CRG by 18Z-19Z, then onto JAX by 21Z.
Cirrus clouds and perhaps a few altocumulus clouds will enter
towards sunrise with winds becoming calm inland after 02Z and
remaining variable at the coast through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure centered directly over our local waters will slide
eastward today and will become anchored near Bermuda through
midweek, resulting in a prevailing southerly wind flow beginning
tonight. Seas of 2-3 feet will prevail both near shore and
offshore through Monday. Evening wind surges may bring wind
speeds up to near Caution levels of 15-20 knots over the offshore
waters, especially towards midweek, and seas offshore will build
slightly to 3-4 feet . A series of frontal boundaries will begin
to approach our region from the northwest beginning late on
Thursday, followed by a front stalling near our local waters next
weekend.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing each afternoon will
combine with a persistent east-southeasterly ocean swell to create
a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches during the next
several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A very dry air mass will continue through around midweek, with
minimum relative humidity values approaching critical thresholds
each afternoon for inland locations west of the Interstate 95
corridor through Tuesday. Light northwest to northerly transport
winds this morning will shift to west-southwesterly around 10
knots across inland portions of southeast GA, with surface and
transport winds shifting to southeasterly along the Interstate 95
corridor and northeasterly across north central FL during the
afternoon today. Lighter transport speeds today will generally
result in fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport
winds will shift back to northwesterly on Monday morning before
backing to southwesterly around 10 knots across inland portions of
southeast GA, while surface and transport winds become onshore
along the northeast FL coast, southeasterly across north central
FL, and southerly for coastal southeast GA during the afternoon
hours. Elevated mixing heights on Monday will result in fair to
good daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will
then shift to southeasterly on Tuesday across northeast and north
central FL, with southerly winds prevailing across southeast GA.
Breezy conditions developing to the south of Interstate 10 will
combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime
dispersion values at most inland locations, with fair values
generally forecast along and east of I-95.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Water levels are nearing moderate flood late this morning along
the Alapaha River near the Statenville gauge, and a new flood
warning has been issued since the gauge is expected to crest in a
moderate flood on Monday. Moderate flooding also continues
downstream along the Alapaha River near the Jennings gauge. Minor
flooding that will be occurring along lower portions of the
Suwannee River this week will also result in continued rises in
water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River this
week, with ongoing minor flooding rising to moderate flood levels
later this week and potentially approaching a major flood during
next weekend. Water levels along the lower Santa Fe near the gauge
at Hildreth are expected to rise above flood stage on Tuesday
night, with minor flooding then continuing during the next several
days.

Water levels are expected to crest just below a moderate flood
along the Satilla River near the gauge at Waycross tonight,
followed by water levels falling below flood stage late this week.
Moderate flooding continues upstream at the gauge above Millwood.
Minor flooding will continue during the next several days along
the lower Satilla River around the Atkinson gauge. Water levels
are near flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River
near the Baxley gauge, where minor flooding is forecast later
today through late this week. Water levels will crest very close
to flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the
Charlotteville gauge from late Monday night through Wednesday
before falling back below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, water levels have crested at minor flood along
portions of the St. Marys River near the Moniac gauge, with levels
forecast to crest just below flood stage downstream at the gauge
near Macclenny later today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  78  58  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  84  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  85  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  84  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$