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000
FXUS62 KJAX 151029
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
629 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Today...Weak shortwave aloft over the SE US currently bringing
abundant mid/high clouds across NE FL/SE GA will exit the region
with skies becoming mostly sunny by the mid-late morning hours as
high pressure ridge axis re-builds across the NE FL/SE GA region.
This will push the east coast sea breeze inland to the US 17 and
US 301 corridors by the mid-late afternoon hours, but not before
max temps reach the upper 80s over inland areas, with lower 80s
along the Atlantic coast in the SE flow at 10-15 mph.

Tonight...High pressure ridge axis remains in place with mostly
clear skies and light southerly winds. Widespread low temps in the
50s expected inland, with lower 60s in the light onshore flow
along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low level ridging aloft will be just off the the southeast coast
of the US Tuesday and surface high pressure between the FL peninsula
and Bermuda will extend it`s axis WSW into the NE Gulf of Mexico.
The flow will be southeasterly over the area 10-15 mph and favoring
the Atlantic Seabreeze moving well inland to the I-75 corridor in
NE FL and US 441 in SE GA. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
inland and the upper 70s to low 80s at the coast.

Wednesday, the low level ridge will approach Bermuda while mid
level ridging aloft extending across Florida from the southern
Gulf of Mexico deflects a shortwaves impulse north of the region
late in the day. The surface high pressure ridge axis will extend
from the center of the high near Bermuda WSW into NE FL with low
level flow initially south southeasterly favoring the Atlantic
seabreeze moving well inland towards highway 301 towards the US17
to highway 301 corridor in the afternoon 10-15 mph while the Gulf
coast seabreeze encroaches towards I-75 as low level flow turns
more southerly over the area by afternoon. Highs similar to
Tuesday with mid to upper 80s inland and lowers 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Thursday, low level ridging will break down to the east and sink
south of the area as a mid level shortwave impulse moves east off
the southeast coast and supports a quick moving weak cold front that
will pass just north of the area to the Carolina coast. This will
change low level flow pattern to west southwesterly with a pinned
Atlantic seabreeze confined to the beachfront communities. Highs
will be warmer Thursday with upper 80s to around 90 degree readings
east of highway 301 to I-95 corridor due to the pinned Atlantic
seabreeze.

Friday, light westerly low level flow relaxes some compared to
Thursday with low level ridging just to the south over central and
southern FL with light westerly winds inland and the Atlantic
seabreeze moving a bit further inland to I-95. Will have silent
pops due to subsidence under the ridge preventing any coverage
of  showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be
hot with low 90s along and west of I-95 to much of our inland
areas with upper 80s along the Altamaha basin and mid 80s at the
beaches.

Saturday, low level ridging will move east away from the FL
peninsula and allow for a few showers and an isolated T`storm to
form over SE GA in the afternoon as moisture increases ahead of
an upstream cold front entering the deep south. Highs stay hot in
the low 90s inland and mid 80s coast.

Sunday, the cold front will slowly sink towards our area with good
agreement from the GFS and ECMWF on isolated to scattered coverage
of showers and thunderstorms for most of the area. Slightly more
clouds Sunday compared to Saturday will help lower highs to the
upper 80s to around 90 and mid 80s at the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will will prevail throughout the 12Z TAF period.
Few to scattered mid and high level clouds still over the area
will depart and thin out through the morning hours with sunny
skies into midday before more cirrus clouds arrive as high
pressure remains over the area this morning, centering just south
of the terminals across central FL. The Atlantic seabreeze will
otherwise be the main feature today as it moves inland across much
of the TAF sites from 17-20Z this afternoon, turning winds
southeasterly around 10-12 knots at SGJ, SSI and CRG and just
under 10 knots at JAX, VQQ, and GNV. Winds will diminish after
sunset and be variable overnight as the high shifts more east of
the area with few to scattered cirrus clouds arriving from the
northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure over the region has shifted eastward resulting in a
prevailing southeast to southerly wind flow over the coastal
waters until Thursday when a when a series of weak frontal
boundaries make their way into the region. No headlines are
expected. Mid to late week, wind surges may bring wind speeds up
to near caution levels over the offshore waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today and Tuesday as
onshore sea breeze expected during the afternoon hours with
surf/breakers around 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  56  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  80  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  88  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  83  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  88  57  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  88  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$