699
FXUS62 KJAX 031822
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
222 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another day with a mix of sun and clouds is underway as the east
coast seabreeze progresses further inland. The breeze is getting
hung up a bit near the St. Johns River breezes and building some
taller cumulus, though just not quite enough layer moisture for
any showers or storms to come out of this as of now. A few
isolated showers cannot be ruled out between about I-75 and I-95
through the next few hours, though the main focus area will be in
the vicinity of and west of I-75 and into southwestern GA counties
this evening where the sea breeze collides with the Gulf breeze.
There is also a surge of higher PWATs further west ahead of a
shortwave impulse aloft, which should also aid in the formation of
some showers and a few t`storms. Not expecting anything at severe
criteria, as instability will not be significant and the flow
aloft is generally weak. Most areas have risen into the mid to
upper 80s, with maybe just a few degrees more to rise inland
before the arrival of the sea breeze. Closer to the coast, likely
have already topped out in the low 80s.

The aforementioned shortwave pushes closer overnight tonight,
which will be enough for some showers and isolated t`storms to
persist overnight. Especially in areas inland to the west and
north of I-10, away from strongest surface ridging and where there
will be greater available moisture. With the lingering convection
overnight and more cloud cover in the area, not expecting as much
in the way of fog Saturday Morning as compared to this morning.
Though some patchy areas cannot be ruled out, especially over
northeast FL. Lows will be mild, in the 60s to low 70s by the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Saturday...Rather messy/complex forecast as mid level
trough/surface frontal boundary over the SE US and any ongoing
leftover convection across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River
Valley during the morning hours with abundant clouds will disrupt
the usual diurnal sea breeze convective cycle. This will lead to
unbalanced afternoon scattered to numerous showers and storms
along both leftover boundaries over inland areas and weaker than
normal inland moving sea breeze fronts from both the
Gulf/Atlantic, which should still lead to decent afternoon/evening
convective coverage, mainly over inland areas, but timing and
strength of any convection will depend on how much insolation
occurs through the daytime hours. Models have trended slightly
downward with Max temps in the lower/middle 80s across SE GA and
along the Atlantic Coast, while mid/upper 80s still expected over
inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the most sun is
expected through the day and will likely be the location for any
of the isolated stronger storms with gusty winds 40-50mph,
lightning and heavy downpours, but widespread severe storms are
not expected at this time.

Saturday Night...Mid level trough aloft is expected to weaken with
a more normal downward diurnal trend in convection after sunset,
with more quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours
under fair skies. Low temps expected in the mid/upper 60s inland,
with lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog is
possible inland but will depend on amount/coverage of rainfall on
Saturday and potential clearing skies during the overnight hours,
so have not included in forecast/grids this far in advance.

Sunday...Lingering moisture from decaying trough aloft and more
normal diurnal sea breeze circulation should lead to scattered
afternoon storms, which may be numerous where sea breeze activity
meets between the I-75 and US 301 corridors over inland areas,
along with continued potential for widely scattered strong storms
with gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy
downpours. Max temps expected to reach the widespread upper 80s
with isolated near 90 degree readings over inland areas, while the
Atlantic Coast tops out in the lower/middle 80s.

Sunday Night...Weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region
and expect an earlier end to most diurnal convection by sunset
with partly/mostly clear skies developing overnight with lows in
the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
Typical patchy fog possible over inland areas, but significant
dense fog not expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Monday...Weak mid level trough passage through the SE US region
and associated lingering moisture should continue the early
summer-like sea breeze convective pattern with scattered to
numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours, with best
chances across inland SE GA where deepest moisture remains. Max
temps generally in the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas, with
lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast and the threat for
widely scattered strong storms will continue.

Tuesday through Friday...Not much change to the ongoing forecast
of hot and mainly dry weather still on track as mid level ridging
builds into the Gulf of Mexico and surface ridge axis builds south
of the local region and this will trap the East Coast sea breeze
along the Atlantic beaches and build the daytime highs into the
lower to middle 90s with near record highs possible in the
Wednesday through Friday time frame. Diurnal convection will be
suppressed but isolated storms will still be possible on Tuesday,
and again by the late Friday time frame as some long range models
are pushing a frontal boundary into the local region by the
following weekend. Dew points mixing down into the mid/upper 60s
during the afternoon hours will keep the heat indices likely below
any Heat Advisory levels, but peak Heat Indices into the 100-105
range will be possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR is currently prevailing at all sites. The east coast sea
breeze will continue to progress inland through this evening, with
a change in wind direction and speed for JAX/VQQ/GNV over the next
few hours. Chances for any SHRA are very low (less than 10%) at
area sites through this evening, with the best chance being at
GNV. However, probability and confidence remains too low to
include in the forecast. FG is expected to be limited Saturday
Morning, though did include a tempo for reduced vis at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Surface high pressure ridging will remain over area waters through
the weekend, with a sea breeze expected to push inland each day.
The associated high will slowly move further southeastward into
early next week, strengthening by mid next week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains at low end of moderate
level through Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  84  64  87 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  70  79  69  81 /  10  20  20  40
JAX  66  85  67  86 /   0  30  20  40
SGJ  67  83  68  85 /   0  20  10  40
GNV  65  88  66  89 /  10  50  20  60
OCF  66  90  66  90 /   0  40  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$