400
FXUS62 KJAX 080035
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
835 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East Coast/Gulf Coast sea breeze merger taking place along the US
17 corridor/St. Johns River Basin at the moment and just expect a
few brief light showers/sprinkles through 10pm, otherwise skies
becoming mostly clear for all NE FL/SE GA locations by the
overnight hours. Low level SW flow will increase moisture enough
to develop low clouds and patchy fog across inland NE FL, mainly
along the I-75 corridor towards sunrise Wednesday morning. Lows
generally in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast.
Mid level ridge axis holds in place across the region on Wednesday
with enough subsidence to suppress convection for the most part
and rainfall chances remain at 10% or less. The Southwest flow
will pin the East Coast sea breeze to the I-95 corridor and the
heat will build throughout the day reaching the middle 90s from
the I-95 to US 301 corridors with Heat Indices (HI) peaking around
100 degrees, while the Atlantic Coastal Beaches should top out
around 90 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly dry conditions with only an isolated shower offshore near
midday. The inland push of the sea breeze will be limited today
as high pressure builds into the region, chances of isolated
showers and storms will mainly be confined along the I-95
corridor in NE FL. Main threat concerns for any isolated t`storm
would be occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief
heavy rainfall. By early evening, any shower/storm activity should
clear out leading to skies becoming mostly clear across the area.
Patchy fog will be possible along the western edges of our area
past midnight and clear out by sunrise. Overnight lows are
expected to dip to the mid 60s over inland areas and in the low
70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The overall pattern Wed and Thu shows an upper level ridge across
most of the forecast area and into the Gulf of Mexico, with some
mid level troughing moving in Thursday afternoon, with the upper
level ridge axis beginning to shift east of the area Thursday
night. At the sfc, high pressure ridge is over the central FL
peninsula and will move a bit southward by Thu to southern FL, as
a cold front marches east to southeast from the TN and MS valley
to Appalachians. The airmass will remain dry and hot for Wed and
partly on Thu with 850 mb temps rising to about 19C and
thicknesses that support mid 90s over the eastern zones. Hottest
temps look to be over the eastern zones as the southwest winds,
breezy at times, near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, push the hot air
all the way to the coast. In other words, the east coast sea
breeze is going to be hard pressed to move inland, especially on
Thursday. Heat indices likely to top out around 100-103 or so.
Record highs are possible. Not heat advisory criteria but if not
used to heat since it`s a bit early in the year for it, it will be
sensitive to more vulnerable people or those working outdoors.

Models show a decent shot of some showers and storm coming in
from the west, mainly affecting southeast GA, Thursday afternoon
and night, with the ECMWF developing convection faster than the
GFS. GFS eventually brings in a batch of showers and potential
storms (MCS type feature) by early Friday morning. Latest trend in
the GFS is for somewhat better chances of precip Thu night compared
to prior runs. Latest forecast shows a slight uptick in chances

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Cold frontal boundary will sag southward over the region Friday as
mid to upper level trough moves through the region. Uncertainty
on how things evolve early Friday and through the afternoon.
Current forecast shows showers and storms widespread over the
north half of the area and more scattered to numerous further
south. Latest model output suggests we may need to shift the
higher POPs further south into northeast FL but will wait on
further model agreement. The mid level trough moves east of the
area by Friday evening and helps to push the cold front through
our forecast area. Lingering precip will be possible Friday
evening but the front should end up over central FL late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Drier and cooler conditions Saturday
and Sunday with the front well to the south and weak high
pressure around 1016 mb over the TN valley. The southern stream
flow is progressive so we expect the sfc high pressure to work
northeast of the area Sunday night, and on Monday we see low
pressure developing along a frontal boundary over the western
Gulf of Mexico, and a warm front lifting up over parts of the
north Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we ramp up rain chances again Monday
from southwest to northeast, especially going into Monday night
as well. Temperatures generally trend downward and fall below
normal through at least Monday before warming up once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Isolated convection still possible along the NE FL Coastal
Counties through 02Z, so have kept VCSH at JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ for now
with the low chances of a brief shower. VFR conds through the
evening then SW flow off the NE Gulf will provide enough moisture
for low clouds (LIFR CIGS) and some MVFR/IFR fog at GNV/VQQ in the
08-12Z time frame, with lower chances at the other TAF sites.
Conds VFR after sunrise on Wednesday at all TAF sites with SW
winds increasing to 10G15 knots, while SE sea breeze expected at
12G18 knots at SSI/SGJ during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area
through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times.
Offshore winds develop by Thursday as a cold front approaches the
region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary
conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives
by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a
frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible
in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches today and Wednesday.
Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today with minor risk on
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  40
SSI  70  88  72  93 /  10   0   0  20
JAX  68  96  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  69  92  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  66  94  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  67  95  69  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$