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000
FXUS63 KJKL 151801
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
201 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance and descending weak boundary look to bring
  isolated to scattered showers and storms to parts of the area
  later today and tonight. A couple of these storms could be
  strong with gusty winds the main threat.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms are forecast for
  Tuesday to Wednesday night and over next weekend. Chances peak
  Wednesday and Wednesday night when again strong storms are
  possible.

- Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area
  through Friday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to low
  80s each day, or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024

Forecast seems to still be in good order early this afternoon.
Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term
forecast grids were on track with the latest observations. The
only thing that may need adjusting at this point is the sky grids,
as CU hasn`t started developing in the northern CWA as quickly as
was originally expected. Will make adjustments to this as needed
based on the latest satellite. All updates have been published and
sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package will be sent out to
remove any morning wording.


UPDATE Issued at 948 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024

Forecast still seems to be well on track so far this morning.
Loaded in the latest observations to make sure that the near term
forecast is on track with the current conditions. This only
resulted in very minor changes. Still expect some clouds to start
filling in especially in the northern CWA over the next couple of
hours as we begin to heat and mix. All updates have published and
sent to NDFD/web. There wasn`t enough changes to warrant a new set
of zones to be sent out, as they are all still well on track as
well.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast for the near term mainly to
include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows Kentucky squeezed between low pressure and
a weak boundary to the north and high pressure over the Deep
South. The extent of the high has kept the skies clear for eastern
Kentucky this night allowing for a decent bout of radiational
cooling. Accordingly, temperatures currently vary from the mid to
upper 60s on the ridges (and in more open areas) to the low and
mid 50s for some of the more sheltered valleys. Meanwhile, amid
southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph outside of the valleys, dewpoints
have moistened to the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Still
expect lower clouds to develop into dawn as that boundary drifts
south closer toward the area, but for now skies are clear and any
fog is minimal.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky between broad troughing north
of the Great Lakes and large ridging into the southern Gulf of
Mexico. This maintains the general northwest flow at mid levels
over the area with only some weak impulses passing above today.
Meanwhile, a deep closed low will start to open up and move out of
the Four Corners region sending more energy this way as it
approaches tonight and Tuesday. It will also lift 5h heights up a
notch starting this evening but increasingly so following its
lead wave passing through eastern Kentucky by noon Tuesday. The
slowly rising height pattern for the next couple of days will cast
some doubt on the extent and robustness of any convection able to
develop locally but ample dynamics aloft and instability may make
up for that concern. The forecast sounding for late this
afternoon show plenty of CAPE and decent enough venting aloft -
should cells initiate. Given the continued small model spread, the
NBM was used as the starting point for the grids along the
addition of terrain based adjustments for temperatures early this
morning and to a small extent tonight into Tuesday morning. CAMs
guidance was also incorporated into the PoPs for later today
through Tuesday.

Sensible weather features warm and mostly sunny days with just
some isolated to scattered storms around. The questions for the
storm development revolves around initialization in an
environment that has plenty of instability available. The best
source for convective initialization appears to be a boundary
settling south through the Ohio Valley later today. Per the CAMs
there are indications that a few storms kick off late this
afternoon and into the evening along this front for northern parts
of the area. The latest HRRR then takes the convection south into
much of the rest of the JKL CWA before fading out towards dawn.
The strongest of these storms could contain damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Additional storms will be possible on Tuesday, but
the forcing seems to be weaker.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point revolved around the
consensus CAMs ideas for PoPs and timing later today through
Tuesday. Did also make adjustments to temperatures this morning
and a little late this evening on account of terrain
distinctions showing up before any showers or storms would move
in from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024

An active weather pattern is expected across the CONUS during the
extended, as a series of systems move across the country. The
beginning of the period will feature a trough of low pressure moving
into southwestern Canada off the Pacific, another strong trough
moving out of the north central Plains, and another well developed
low finally moving out to sea off the northern New England coast
line. There is also evidence of troughing over the desert southwest
to begin the period. Our primary weather maker will be the northern
central Great Plains system. It will be pushed eastward through the
region ahead of the southern Canada trough, as it too push east
along our northern border. A cold front extended southward from the
central CONUS system will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong southerly flow ahead
of the cold front will allow for a surge of warm and moist Gulf of
Mexico air into the area. As this moisture interacts with the
eastward moving surface front, showers and storms will fire along
and ahead of it. It is during this time that we will see our best
chances for rain in the extended. Widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves through.

The latest model soundings have ample instability to support a few
strong thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening for our area,
especially when combined with the incoming moisture flux and the
strength of the approaching weather system during that time.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially for locations
where multiple thunderstorms move through the same area over and
over. Strong, gusty winds will also be possible. Once the surface
front has moved through late Wednesday night, the rain will steadily
taper off, and should be out of the area by late Thursday morning.
After that, a weak ridge of high pressure will settle over the area
for a short while, and will bring dry weather to eastern Kentucky
for a bit. The dryness will be short lived, however, as another area
of low pressure will be close on the heels of the first one. A
vigorous short wave is forecast to migrate around the western
portion of the eastward moving southern Canada system as it
intensifies north of the Great Lakes and slows down a bit. The
second batch of rain should begin moving into eastern Kentucky
around dawn on Friday. This second system looks like it will be
weaker than the first and a bit moisture starved. Therefore, we will
be going expecting only scattered showers and storms to finish out
the week. However, this second weather system looks like it will be
slow to move through, and will have a sluggish surface boundary that
could linger or over our area through the upcoming weekend. This
will keep rain chances in the forecast through Sunday. This second
round of rain should taper off and finally come to an end sometime
Sunday evening.

With an abundance of brisk and persistent southerly or southwesterly
flow in place across the area, a steady supply of warm and muggy air
will be feeding into the region through most of the extended. In
fact we should see daily high temperatures as much as 7 to 10
degrees above normal across most of the area Wednesday through
Friday. Once the second cold front/upper trough move by over the
weekend, we should see temperatures return to near normal or even
below normal readings. Winds will be brisk and gusty most of the
period, but especially during the passage of each weather system we
are forecasting.

There were some differences between the latest runs of the GFS and
ECMWF models, regarding timing and coverage of precip, along with
the evolution and progression of the troughs mentioned earlier.
Stuck close to the NBM solution for PoPs, with modifications made
based on the GFS Ensembles. All in all the forecast matched up well
with our neighbors across the board. The primary forecast concerns
will be how strong and widespread thunderstorms will be mid-week,
and how much rain we will end up receiving.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024


VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. A few
stray showers or thunderstorms may occur with out boundary to our
north late in the day today. These storms could continue into the
evening and even possibly the overnight hours in some locations.
The northern TAF sites of KSJS and KSME are most likely to see
convection, but KJKL isn`t out of the question. Winds will
continue to veer to the west southwest through the day at speeds
up to 10 kts, then will diminish once more after dark - away from
any potential storms. Once any precip chances diminish overnight,
expect generally BKN VFR skies and light S to SW winds (generally
under 10 kts) to prevail into the early afternoon on Tuesday.
Can`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm at either KSJS or
KSME during the early afternoon hours on Tuesday as well, though
confidence on the timing and location of such showers is still
quite low.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW