Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A new area of light snow is underway across swrn Nebraska and
  this snow will spread through ncntl Nebraska this evening.
  Around 2 inches of snow is forecast overnight before it exits
  the area before sunrise Tuesday.

- Blizzard warnings continue tonight across ncntl Nebraska where
  wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are predicted. Wind speeds will
  subside throughout the evening and overnight.

- A Winter Weather advisory is in place this evening for areas
  along highway 83. Snowfall amounts of up to 2 inches are
  possible across areas east of highway 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The RAP model is the basis for the snow forecast tonight. The model
suggests 1 to 3 inches across ncntl Nebraska with little or no snow
along and west of highway 83.

The wind forecast uses the short term model blend plus bias
correction plus 1 to 2 kts markup to line up with the 500m AGL winds
of 20 to 30 kts. The wind gust tool suggested gusts of 35 to 45 mph
east of highway 83. The Blizzard Warning across ncntl Nebraska can
continue in place. A Winter Weather advisory is in place for the row
of counties just to the west, or along highway 83 until 06z tonight.

Radar and the RAP model show an h700mb low near KDDC which will lift
northeast through ern KS overnight. This low and the ongoing low
across nrn IA/srn MN will form a double barrel low. If the model is
correct, a new area of light snow should spread into ncntl Nebraska
this evening and then exit east by 10z Tuesday morning.

The RAP model shows and area of modest moisture transport across
cntl Nebraska drifting slowly east overnight. To the west, dry air
will move in with h850-300mb RH falling to around 40 percent across
wrn Nebraska by morning. This should produce mostly clear skies
along and west of highway 83 by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

When temperatures are 30 degrees below average, there is really
no where to go but up and that is what the models show
Wednesday through Sunday. H850mb temperatures will warm from
-10C to +10C. The warm air should be in place Thursday;
 Wednesday will be a transition day. The forecast respects the
 snow cover east of highway 83 Thursday with just 40s and lower
 50s for highs; upper 50s and 60s in place west of the highway
 where less snow occurred.

A backdoor cold front will drop through wrn/ncntl Nebraska Friday
and rain chances are in place Saturday and Sunday. The rain chances
appear to be focused along a stationary front across nrn Nebraska or
srn SD and the upper level support is the nrn stream. An upper level
low off the West coast will support moisture aloft. The setup looks
reasonable but location at this range makes the forecast uncertain.
The blended forecast leans on the ECM which is south of the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Snow will continue across portions of north central Nebraska through
early Tuesday morning. Strong northwest winds will also continue
through much of Tuesday morning before diminishing during the
afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots will create areas of blowing and
drifting snow as well as visibility restrictions. Skies begin to
clear Tuesday afternoon with ceilings rising back into VFR
conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ005-025-
037-059-071.
Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ006-008-009-026.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ007-010-027>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.