906
FXUS63 KLBF 301729
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
   expected to develop across western Nebraska into the
   panhandle this afternoon though greenup is well underway.

- There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late
  this afternoon for portions of Nebraska mainly along and
  east of Highway 281.

- There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms again
  Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night mainly from Grant
  through North Platte to Broken Bow and southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A vigorous short wave will drive a surface low across the High
Plains and push a cold front through Nebraska today. The front has
good mid level deformation and FGEN forcing but deep moisture is
lacking. Anticipate there may be a few sprinkles from some mid level
moisture early this morning with the better chances for
showers/thunderstorms more closely associated with the frontal
passage and mostly confined to along/north of Hwy 2 closer to the
better moisture. The best potential for string to severe
thunderstorms will accompany a plume of moisture surging up from the
Gulf this afternoon, but this will be mainly across eastern Nebraska
later this afternoon as the front is exiting the region. There
may be a window for convective initiation to occur near Hwy 281
with a marginal severe threat but the main threat area is
expected to reside off to our east.

Winds behind the front will veer to the northwest and become quite
gusty with probabilistic guidance showing up to an 80 percent
chance for gusts in excess of 35 mph west of Hwy 83 and
particularly in a corridor down the North Platte river valley
from Oshkosh to North Platte. The lack of moisture combined with
some downsloping will generate very dry conditions with a much
better than even chance for minimum relative humidity values
below 20 percent from the southern panhandle into southwest
Nebraska this afternoon. This will create elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions for any patchy/areas of
lingering old growth cured fuels, though green up and our recent
cool/damp conditions will help mitigate fire concerns.

A progressive upper level pattern with a closed low/trof moving into
the northern Rockies will keep our weather active through midweek.
So after a brief break of dry conditions Tuesday evening into
early Tuesday night, isentropic lift associated with a surface
low developing over eastern Colorado will start to push some
showers northward into Nebraska toward daybreak Wednesday
morning, and by Wednesday afternoon showers and some thunder
will have overspread the majority of the area. As the low starts
to eject eastward late Wednesday into Wednesday night it will
combine with a plume of deep moisture moving up from the south
and significant mid level forcing to bring thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall to portions of southwest and central
Nebraska, mainly from Imperial through North Platte to O`Neill.
Will be monitoring locations along and east of Hwy 183 closely
for potential flooding from excessive rainfall on soils that
remain wet from recent heavy rainfall from Hwy 183 eastward.
Additionally, modest elevated instability with steep mid/upper
level lapse rates will be able to generate some robust storms
with a marginal severe threat primarily for hail early Wednesday
night mainly from Imperial through North PLatte to Broken Bow
and southward. Will be monitoring the potential for severe
weather and hydro concerns closely over the next several data
cycles for any chances that may impact threat levels across
central and western Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms will be
pushing off to the east later Wednesday night.

Highs today will range from only around 60 degrees across northwest
Nebraska where the cold front will pass earlier in the day, to the
middle 70s across south central Nebraska where the frontal passage
will be later. Post frontal highs tomorrow will be cooler with
readings topping out generally in the 60s. Overnight lows will
generally be in  the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement keeping unsettled weather
across central and western Nebraska through the weekend with the
upper trof over the northern Rockies slowly lifts northeastward
into Canada and is replaced by another strong closed low moving
into the PacNW. There may be an opportunity for periods Thursday
into Friday to be more dry than not, but potential for showers
and thunderstorms increases late Friday into Friday night. Then
perhaps a brief break heading into the weekend, followed
increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Winds have strengthened out of the northwest
behind a cold frontal passage with widespread gusts of 25 to 35
knots. These gusty winds will continue through this evening,
before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken