Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
479 FXUS64 KLCH 022329 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 As of 330CDT we are seeing showers and storms begin to taper across the area, with a wake low forming over the northern tier of the CWA. We will continue to see tapering across the area this evening, however another round of showers and storms will ramp tomorrow morning thanks to yet another disturbance. Tomorrow night we shall see another lull in activity, which is likely to persist into Saturday afternoon before isolated showers return to the northern half of the CWA. While rainfall amounts tomorrow and Saturday are not expected to be as copious as what we have seen today, we continue to stress that any additional rainfall amounts will exacerbate current flooding. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The long-term portion of the forecast period begins with the potential for yet another wet day, especially for the far nrn areas, as we`ll see the interaction of an approaching/passing mid- level shortwave with a stalled/decaying sfc boundary over the region along with abundant Gulf moisture. Best rain chances will come during the late morning/afternoon hours along with daytime heating before lift wanes as the disturbance aloft departs. For Monday, as the mid/upper-level trof pushes ewd out of the Rockies, another weaker disturbance is progged to slip past the area, with best dynamics staying to our north. However, could see enough lift to go along with daytime heating to produce widely scattered convection across our nern zones. Thereafter, the remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a more zonal flow is progged to develop aloft, with weak capping/limited moisture aloft likely prohibiting convective development. Expect to see a gradual warming trend through the long term as temps creep upward to mins in the lower 70s/highs in the lower 90s. 25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Shower activity is ending and all terminals are at VFR levels to start the period. Looks like low clouds will begin to form during the evening hours with MVFR conditions developing between 03/02z and 03/04z. The next issue will be the potential for redevelopment of shower activity overnight. With the very moist airmass staying around and plenty of low level boundaries, nocturnal shower activity is expected at KBPT/KLCH around 03/09z then spreading to the other terminals by 03/13z. MVFR to IFR conditions from the showers and storms. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Isolated to slight showers and storms to continue across the coastal waters this evening. We will see a brief lull in activity overnight before another round tomorrow morning. Then another quiet period starting tomorrow night. No Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the rest of the && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 80 64 85 / 40 70 20 30 LCH 70 81 70 84 / 50 60 0 10 LFT 72 82 70 86 / 50 60 10 10 BPT 70 82 71 84 / 50 60 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...07