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000
FXUS64 KLIX 181836
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
136 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions will remain relatively similar for the next few days.
Temps will continue to top out near 90 for some areas which is a bit
warmer than where we should be for this time of year(climo is around
80F). Subtropical jet influences will keep the area with cloud cover
and a mild weakness causing a few light showers to speckle the area
from time to time through Friday. The main feature on the map for
the next few days will be watching a cold front sinking SE toward
the area. This front is currently located across Nebraska and
Missouri this morning. The front will get a kick today causing it to
move at a moderate pace toward the east. But forcing will become
lacking as it approaches the gulf coast. By Fri night, we should see
this front at least tap the brakes as it gets near the northern
portion of the area. This slowing/stalling of the front could cause
conditions that promote some advective fog development or at least a
"set down" event Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A new upper trough in the polar jet will begin to move into the west
coast late Fri and as this front feels the tug of this new wave, it
will slow even further to a stall or at least quasi-stationary for
Saturday. The upper trough(located well off the west coast at the
moment) will move over this front and help develop a sfc low as the
upper winds break the top of the Rockies late Sat. The sfc low that
develops will have plenty of strong divergence aloft owing to strong
dynamic lift. The problem with this area is the stability below. The
area this divergence moves over is behind the cold front. Another
area of sh/ts will also develop along and south of the cod front
Sunday. But this area is lacking the dynamics support, but it has
most of the lower level instability. To say that none of this
area along and south of the front will not support any strong
storms would not be right. There is a very small chance of a
strong storm with this area Sunday. PW highest values move to
around 1.8 inches which isn`t off the charts for this time of year
but can still produce some heavy rainfall. The upper trough will
give the much needed nudge to the front to move it offshore during
the day Sunday. After the near 90F highs we have had up to Sat,
this front will be noticed as it will drop temps back into the
lower 70s for highs by Monday with a few upper 60s north, and lows
in the lower 50s with an upper 40s thrown in to the north for
good measure. By Tuesday, we should see this frontal boundary
begin to sneak back to the north as a warm front. The subtropical
jet will continue to buckle across Mexico and may be able to
provide this boundary with enough lift to keep thing unsettled
over the frontal interface. So, it will depend on where this warm
frontal boundary wants to buy real estate to see whether our area
gets storms associated with this or not. This time of year
systems can be quick to stall or move back over us, so it is
possible that this boundary could move close enough to give us
storms again by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs dominate the short term with possibly
more sites become VFR as ceilings try to rise. Later this evening
and overnight, cloud decks will lower back to MVFR or IFR with the
potential for areas of light fog. A few terminals may see moderate
to occasionally dense fog at times. Expect conditions to start
improving a couple/few hours after sunrise.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak southerly winds will remain ahead of a cold front that will be
moving toward the northern gulf coast this weekend. This front
should move over the coastal waters Sunday bringing north winds to
the northern gulf of around 15-20kt. Some storms will accompany this
front as it moves through which could be strong. High pressure will
move east rapidly and an onshore flow of 10-15kt will be re-
established by Tue with sh/ts developing once again over at least
the offshore waters into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  85  64  81 /   0  10   0  40
BTR  69  89  68  87 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  67  86  66  85 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  70  86  69  85 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  67  82  66  82 /   0  10   0  20
PQL  65  85  64  85 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE