Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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464 FXUS64 KLIX 281731 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Wind gusts are already up to 20kt this morning over land so this is where we will start for today. Again, 20-25mph very likely today with gusts to 30-35mph. A wind advisory will be posted for today mainly for the frequent gusts 25+mph through the day. The other headlines will remain as posted. Water levels will rise with these consistent winds and levels 1-2ft above normal levels should be the result and today should be the highest of the 3 days that this will be possible. We will again bring precip numbers up a bit for the Pearl River and Mississippi coastal areas for today. The upper trough is moving just a bit farther east this morning and SPC has been updating their risk areas farther east. The current line of storms over TX will continue eastward at a slow pace eventually becoming orphaned as the cold front backs off in east TX. But instead of decaying, this line will have support from the H3 jet with the upper trough to our NW coupling with the strong almost zonal flow coming across the EastPac into Mexico and over the gulf. This will set up a strong split flow at H3 near our area and will move east with time tonight and Monday. The upper trough will not move much farther east than the Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday. This means that as the area of divergence aloft moves east, it will eventually become weaker as it moves to the Miss/Ala state line. And this will cause subsequent weakening of the complex of sh/ts moving ESE Monday. No frontal passage with these storms but they will offer some temporary cooling as they cold pool out. This could give our area some much needed rain as well. SPC has a marginal risk at the moment for this activity and this seems to fit very well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 This scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling only to retrograde will continue. This doesn`t change a lot here for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week but it could bring some rain to the area which has been lacking. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Terminals will generally remain in low VFR to MVFR conditions for ceilings today along with very gusty conditions with southerly/southeasterly winds of 15-20kts with gusts in excess of 30 kt possible. The winds will slack a bit in the overnight hours but the next big concern is a line of showers and storms moving through the area. The timing is still a bit iffy but it will enter the western terminals within the forecast cycle so attempted to time the arrival of storms, but will need more refinements as the event gets closer. -BL && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will remain over all marine areas through at least the next few days if not more. Small craft advisories have been extended for this reason. There will be some gusts to gale force, but this should not be the rule most of the time. But this will be a high end advisory for all waters. Winds will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should ease just a bit as we move through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 78 63 83 / 10 90 60 60 BTR 72 84 69 86 / 20 90 50 60 ASD 69 83 66 84 / 0 70 50 50 MSY 72 84 70 83 / 0 70 50 50 GPT 69 81 66 81 / 10 40 50 40 PQL 67 83 65 83 / 0 30 40 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058- 070-076-078-080-082-084. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...BL MARINE...TE