817
FXUS65 KLKN 050602
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1102 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong spring weather system brings widespread winter
like conditions to the forecast area tonight and tomorrow
morning. Post frontal instability showers and weak thunderstorms
expected Sunday afternoon with activity mostly dissipating Sunday
night. Conditions remain cool with unsettled weather over
northern Nevada into mid week. Mostly dry with fairer weather the
latter half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have fallen below high wind warning thresholds,
therefore the warning is allowed to expire. However, gusty winds
will continue into the night at higher elevations along with
widespread rain and snow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night

Robust upper low and strong attendant cold front continue to move
thru the forecast area tonight with the low anticipated to be
directly overhead mid day Sunday. Exceptionally strong
southwesterly winds ease overnight in conjunction with the frontal
passage with winds becoming westerly post frontal. Winds ease as
noted but will remain at least breezy tonight with gusts 20 to 25
mph. West/northwesterly gusts 25 to 30 mph expected Sunday
afternoon with winds trending lighter Sunday night.

Snow levels expected to quickly lower tonight as a cold post
frontal air mass continues to move into Nevada. Widespread rain
transitions to snow tonight and based on the timing of the
frontal progression and main push of precipitation along the
front, White Pine County will be the primary focus of accumulating
snow late tonight and Sunday morning with impacts also expected
throughout the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt range as well as northern
Elko County. Winter weather advisories have been issued for these
locations, 6500 feet and higher. Much lower probability for
winter weather impacts elsewhere. Pass routes across the eastern
half of the forecast area likely see slush ups and light
accumulations which will be primarily snowfall rate driven, and
produce adverse travel conditions late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning. Most valley snow totals Saturday night and Sunday
morning will be around an inch or less. The greatest accumulations
of 2-5 inches of snowfall will be situated over the pass routes
across the eastern half of the forecast area. High mountain snow
totals look to be around 10 inches or more.

Front will be mostly exited to the east by Sunday afternoon,
however weather will remain active with instability showers persisting
across the forecast area. Light valley rain/snow mix is generally
expected with light snow showers elsewhere. Additional snow
accumulations will be little to none for the valleys. Ample
instability looks to also produce isolated weak thunderstorms with
graupel, occasional lightning, and localized erratic wind gusts
present under any thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms
dissipate thru the evening and Sunday night with mostly dry
conditions present by sunrise Monday. That said, snow showers
likely linger across northern ELko County and the Jarbidge
Wilderness and Independence range are forecast to pick up an
additional 1 to 4 inches of snow Sunday evening and Sunday night.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the low 20s to low
30s. Daytime highs Sunday will be cool, residing in the upper 30s
to upper 40s with overnight lows again in the low 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

Lingering showers and breezy winds will continue Monday as a low
pressure system progresses eastward. On the heels of the exiting
low, an upper level wave moves through northern NV Monday
afternoon, bringing scattered rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms mainly north of 1-80. Winds will increase out of
the west to 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Light snow showers
are possible in the higher valleys, with 1-3 inches of snow in the
high mountain areas of Northern Elko County and the Ruby
Mountains.

Some lingering showers and breezy conditions will persist for
much of the day Tuesday as a broad long-wave trough encompasses
most of the west. A 15-20% chance isolated thunderstorms is
possible across northern Elko county in the afternoon. Quiet
conditions expected as dry, northwest flow influences the region
mid to late next week. Highs early next week will start out in the
50s and 60s before climbing into the 70s by late next week. Lows
will range from the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally
windy each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier
locales.

AVIATION...A storm system from the northwest will impact northern
and central NV through Sunday. Elevated winds from the S-SW
expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 20-25 knots with
gusts as high as 30-40 knots at northern terminal sites. Gusts
will reach to 40-50 knots at KELY and KTPH, with BLDU possible
given the strong winds. Blowing dust may also reduce VIS to MVFR
during the afternoon and evening. Winds decrease though gusts of
20-25kt are possible through the evening.

Rain showers will move from west to east and reach at northern
terminal sites today with CIGs lowering to MVFR conditions at
times. Rain expected to transition to snow tonight with CIGs and
VIS lowering to MVFR/IFR. Snow showers will then reach KELY and
KTPH late tonight and Sunday morning with CIGs and VIS lowering
to MVFR/IFR.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue.

HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt.
A strong low pressure system continues to bring widespread rain
and mountain snow to northern and central Nevada this afternoon,
tonight, and tomorrow. Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts of
0.20up to 1.25 are expected across Nevada, exacerbating flood concerns.
This will increase flows on many streams and rivers over the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for
the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days
while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into
action stage mid week.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage.
The river is forecast to continue to range around action stage for
the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon PDT Sunday ABOVE 6500 FEET in
Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...
White Pine County.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday South Central Elko County...
Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning until 2 AM PDT Sunday Northeastern Nye
County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine
County.

&&

$$

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