Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 272302
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
702 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chilly Thursday morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

* Dry and mild rest of the work week. Warmer temperatures and
  increasing shower and storm chances later this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Clouds are dissipating quickly now, but have played a big role in
keeping temps a bit cooler through the first half of the day.
Temperatures are warming into the upper 40s to lower 50s, and should
rise a few more degrees with peak heating occurring closer to 21Z.

Tonight will be chilly and dry with sfc high pressure nosing in from
the west. Sfc winds veer northerly tonight and will be light,
generally 5 kts or less during the overnight and early morning hours
of Thursday. Though Frost/Freeze headlines have not yet started for
the new growing season, frost could damage susceptible early
blooming vegetation. Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper
20s to lower 30s in most places.

Thursday looks quiet with mainly clear skies to begin the day. Light
northerly winds will turn westerly by the afternoon. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s by mid-afternoon, with
just some scattered cu spreading southeast across southeastern IN
and north-central KY, including the Bluegrass Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Thursday Night - Friday...

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will move over the
Ohio Valley Thursday night. Conditions will remain dry and skies
mostly clear Thursday night and Friday. Friday afternoon, a dry air
mix down set up will likely shape up with minimum relative humidity
in the 25-30% range and breezy winds around 15-20mph in the
afternoon.

Friday Night - Sunday...

A series of shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of a
slowly deamplifying broad ridge over the southern CONUS. These
shortwaves will be associated with waves of increased chances for
showers and storms. Through the weekend temperatures will warm into
the mid-upper 70s by Sunday.

Saturday, brief showers over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
will be possible as the first shortwave and 40-45kt LLJ moves
through the region. Saturday afternoon will be breezy with gusts 25-
30mph. On Sunday, better moisture return into the region, a nose of
a 40kt LLJ, and vorticity lobes will lead to some showers and a
higher storm potential.

Monday - Mid Next Week...

A closed upper low over the SW CONUS will begin to move over the
southern CONUS into the mid-Mississippi Valley early next week.
Another upper low over eastern Canada will also be moving east early
next week. This could lead to a heavy rain event and increased
potential for severe weather. These threats are conditional on
whether the two troughs can phase together and where the surface
features will be placed over the region. At this time, guidance has
not converged on a solution and confidence is low. If the region is
within the warm sector, we could see upper 50s and low 60s dew
points and temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Skies have cleared out this evening and will remain clear overnight
as surface high pressure nudges in from the west. Winds will
generally be out of the NW to NE through the forecast period, with
changes in direction occurring as the surface high slides to our
south tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...DM


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