860
FXUS66 KLOX 281012
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
312 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...28/227 AM.

Some coastal low clouds and fog will be possible each night and
morning through late next week, otherwise mostly clear skies with
warmer temperatures can be expected during the period. Gusty west
to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at
least through at least Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/256 AM.

Not much going on in the short term other than some winds and a
slow increase in the amount of night through morning low clouds.
The main storm track is well north of the area and NW slightly
cyclonic flow will be over the area today and Monday on Tuesday
the flow will turn a little more westerly and a little more
cyclonic. At the sfc a large high pressure system to the WNW of
the Bay Area will bring strong NW winds to the waters and the
Central Coast. A meso sfc high near Bakersfield will keep
northerly offshore flow going across eastern SBA county, VTA
county and western LA county.

The strong WNW flow into western SBA county has produced some back
building low clouds in the Santa Ynez vly back into western
coastal plain. A weak eddy is forecast by the ensemble to bring
low clouds to the KLAX-KLGB area around dawn there is a 40 percent
chc that this will not happen. There will be low end advisory (45
mph) gusts across the western Antelope Vly, I-5 corridor and VTA
county mtns. There will also be advisory level 45 mph gusts across
western portion of the SBA south coast as the strong NW winds whip
off of the Pacific and filter through passes and canyons of the
western Santa Ynez range. Max temps today will respond nicely to
the sunshine and offshore flow - look for 3 to 6 degrees of
warming across the board. Most max temps will approach normals but
will likely fall just short.

Monday will be much like today just a little better low clouds
coverage. The winds will continue through the afternoon. There is
a decent chc (30-40 percent) that wind advisories will be need to
be extended into Tuesday. Another 1 to 2 degrees of warming will
bring max temps to normals or a degree above.

The offshore flow from the north increases to 6mb on Tuesday
morning. The canyon winds will likely extend down from the mtns
and into the vlys and then the csts as it passes through various
N/S passes and canyons. Short range high rez ensembles indicate
only a low chc (25 percent) of advisory level winds across VTA/LA
counties but a much higher chc (70 percent) across the western
half of southern SBA county.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/310 AM.

The EC and GFS mean ensembles and deterministic are in generally
good agreement thru Thursday with broad pos tilt troffing on
Wednesday giving way to NW flow on Thursday. There will only be
minimal low clouds on Wednesday mostly across the LA county south
coast. Lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 2 to 4
degrees of cooling to most areas. High pressure is fcst to move
into NV on Thursday morning and will set up offshore flow from
both the N and E. A low end Santa Ana wind event will develop.
There will be no low clouds and 3 to 6 degrees of warming.

There is not much mdl agreement either in the deterministic side
or ensemble side of things for the Friday and Saturday forecast.
fortunately the consequences will not be great the EC fcst will
be cooler with more marine layer clouds and the GFS fcst will
trend warmer with less marine layer clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0559Z.

At 0500Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the
of marine layer was 1600 ft with a temp of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs except for KSMO where there is a 30
percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z and KLAX and KLGB where there is a
30 percent chc of no cigs.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance
of no cigs. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/827 PM.

With increasing confidence, have issued an extended period of
Gale Warnings for the outer waters through Monday night, where
peak gusts of 35 to 40 knots are expected. There is a 40-60%
chance of gales will persist into Tue night, especially zones
673/676. Strongest winds expected each afternoon/evening. SCA
winds are expected through Thu.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely
especially during the afternoon/eve hours thru Tue night. Seas
are expected to be near SCA levels during the periods of weaker
winds. There is a 25% chance of gale force winds during the
afternoon/eve hours Sun and Mon.

In the inner waters S Pt.Conception, a persistent eddy circulation
will likely keep much of the inner waters below SCA level winds.
However, western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel are
expected to see at least SCA level winds during the
afternoon/evening hours through Tuesday, with a 50 percent chance
of Gale force winds late Sunday afternoon/evening. Due to the
lower confidence, keeping the Gale Watch in effect for the western
Santa Barbara Channel during that time period.

Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea
conditions across much of the coastal waters (particularly the
outer waters) thru the weekend, with short-period, steep, and
choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking waves near west-
facing harbors. Mariners should remain in safe harbor until
conditions improve.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Gomberg/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox