Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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100 FXUS64 KLUB 100505 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1205 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The CWA will remain under the influence of broad, southwesterly flow aloft as a mid/upper-level low on the southwestern flank of a longwave, positively-tilted trough meanders over the central Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front has become quasi-stationary to the southwest of the CWA where post-frontal winds will continue to steadily veer eastward while remaining blustery as pressure tendencies gradually rise. Strong, WAA atop the post-frontal airmass will maintain a distinct warm nose that will cap mixing heights to near 800 mb for the remainder of the day and into tomorrow. The field of boundary-layer stratocu will remain intact across the Rolling Plains throughout the rest of the afternoon while gradually advecting and/or forming on the Caprock, with the stratocu persisting throughout the overnight hours into tomorrow across portions of the CWA. Pressure tendencies should neutralize by late Friday morning with the easterly breeze remaining intact at around 10-15 mph amidst mild temperatures as mid-level cloud cover steadily thickens upon the arrival of a 700 mb trough. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The weekend continues to look relatively cool and wet as an upper level low from near Las Vegas, NV, Friday evening to the Four Corners Saturday evening and the central High Plains Sunday evening. As mid/upper level ridging shifts east of the forecast area Friday night, increasing upper level difluence and mid level isentropic lift over the cool air mass in place across the forecast area will result in cloudy skies and increasing shower chances late Friday night and through Saturday. Progged CAPE values available to the isentropic lift are mainly between 500 and 750 J/kg which would favor showers and the profile looks closer to moist adiabatic. This would favor showers, but cannot rule out some thunder while rainfall intensity favors light to occasionally moderate. Conditions are progged to begin favoring thunder on Sunday as the main lift from the low moves out overhead, skies attempt to clear from west to east, southerly low level brings warmer temperatures, which in turn leads to progged MUCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg. High temperatures on Saturday look to be by far the coolest of the forecast period with low ceilings limit diurnal range. Will favor NBM at this time which is basically the midpoint between the cooler MET and warmer MAV MOS numbers, although the cooler MET could win out if stratus remains thick and widespread. Breaks in the overcast and the low level warm advection on Sunday will warm temperatures, especially western zones where more insolation is likely Sunday afternoon. Model evolution in the 12Z run is pretty consistent with previous runs favoring the upper low moving to western Oklahoma Monday. This is to be followed by upper level short wave ridging before another upper level low opens up and ejects eastward toward the forecast area. Monday could see some late day showers/thunder across the east with some lingering mid/upper level cyclonic curvature overhead. After warm and dry conditions underneath the ridge on Tuesday, the next chance for thunderstorms will come Wednesday with the approaching low/trough. Temperatures through the Monday to Wednesday revert to warmer than normal while a cold front could bring temperatures back to the mean on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Breezy easterly winds gusting up to 25 kts are possible at KLBB this afternoon. Light winds will persist otherwise. VFR will continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...19