386
ACUS11 KWNS 022007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022007
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Illinois and northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 022007Z - 022200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
through this afternoon across portions of northern Illinois and
Indiana. A few thunderstorms could produce hail of 1-1.25 inches in
diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show an area of deep moist
convection developing along a warm front lifting northward across
northern Indiana and Illinois. Meanwhile, aloft, a mid to upper
level shortwave trough apparent in water vapor imagery now crossing
the Dakotas and an associated mid level jet max were progressing
east northeastward. Buoyancy behind the warm front will continue to
increase through late this afternoon, along with a slow increase in
mid to upper flow/deep effective shear via the shortwave trough to
the northwest. However, most of the large scale ascent associated
with the latter will remain well northwest of the unstable air mass
and severe convective coverage is expected to remain rather limited.
Some updraft intensification could occur within a few cells that
manage to avoid interactions through peak daytime heating. Any of
these more robust thunderstorms that manage to develop could briefly
become severe.

..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40418993 42418899 42698886 42778860 42798826 42788814
            42718785 42638772 42438760 42308755 42188748 42028716
            41798673 41588638 41488607 41198554 40928528 40818479
            40388484 40398590 40608695 40638820 40418993