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000
ACUS11 KWNS 151856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151855
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...far southern IN...central/eastern KY into western
Virginia/West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151855Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms potential may increase over the next
couple of hours from far southern Indiana into parts of
central/eastern Kentucky and western Virginia/West Virginia. Large
hail and strong gusts would accompany any stronger storms that
develop.

DISCUSSION...An increase in cumulus has been noted in visible
satellite imagery over the past hour, especially from eastern KY
into West Virginia. Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the mid
50s to mid 60s F beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates are
resulting in MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. While large-scale ascent is
weak over the region, continued heating and erosion of weak
inhibition amid 30-40 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow, should
foster at least isolated thunderstorm development over the next few
hours. Any storms that develop would have potential to become
severe, with steep midlevel lapse rates and straight/elongated
hodographs supporting severe hail. Additionally, steep low-level
lapse rates also will foster some potential for strong/locally
damaging gusts.

Some uncertainty exists in timing and westward extent of severe
potential. The MCD area will continued to be monitored for possible
watch issuance over the next few hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   38718176 38548119 37908102 37358127 36958192 36868284
            36838347 36838399 36898501 37338650 37738712 37988726
            38398680 38658449 38718176