Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 242310
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Winds will begin to pickup overnight as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Strong southerly winds will persist
throughout much of the day on Monday with gusts as high as 50 mph
by late afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop
late Monday afternoon and persist through late Monday night. A few
strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds and heavy
rainfall. Dry conditions will return on Tuesday and persist
through next weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal
through midweek with a warming trend to finish out the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A beautiful day ongoing across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s with a light southerly
wind. A few airports are already reporting surface pressure
falling rapidly at 3PM CDT. The latest surface analysis places a
986mb low over central Colorado with a cold front and dry line
extending SSW into west Texas. A 1029mb high was analyzed over
northern Quebec. Aloft, a large scale trough was analyzed over
the Four Corners Region with deep southwesterly flow over the
majority of the eastern CONUS.

The aforementioned surface low will actually fill a bit tonight as
it moves into the Central Plains and an upper low closes off from
the main trough near the Oklahoma Panhandle. A rather vigorous
shortwave will eject from the base of the closed upper low and
track across the Southern Plains tonight into tomorrow morning.
Yet another shortwave will round the base of the main trough, near
Baja California, and eject quickly and nearly phase with the
northern shortwave as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley
tomorrow afternoon and evening. This quickly evolving pattern will
result in a messy convective mode and add quite a bit of
uncertainty wrt the short-term forecast.

Nonetheless, a line of storms is expected to form overnight near
the ArkLaTex and slowly advance forward through tomorrow
afternoon. Ahead of the system, limited instability will be
available, but shear will be plentiful. The main threat will be
gradient winds ahead of the system as the pressure gradient
tightens between 8 to 10mb. Synoptic models continue to
advertise a secondary surface low developing near the ArkLaMiss
by late afternoon. A High Wind Watch was initially issued, but
confidence in 58 mph wind gusts still remains less than 50
percent at this time. However, wind gusts to 50 mph look likely
across much of the Mid-South by late afternoon.

By tomorrow night, the secondary wave will eject and push a
nearly meridional line of showers and embedded storms through the
region. The main concern will be showers mixing down 60 knot
winds from 925mb. Instability will remain below 100 J/kg, but up
to 80 knots of bulk shear will be on hand. The primary convective
mode will be linear, but a few quick spinups cannot be ruled out,
due to the amount of low level shear. The line will move through
the region late afternoon through about midnight. Up to 2 inches
of rainfall is likely, but the heavy rainfall threat appears to be
decreasing now.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through next weekend as
high pressure remains anchored over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Below normal temperatures will persist through midweek, with a
warming trend beginning late week. A light frost is possible
Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but freezing temperatures look
unlikely.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Complex set of TAFS this evening. VFR cigs tonight should become
MVFR tomorrow into tomorrow night. Cigs could briefly become IFR
in association with thunderstorms tomorrow evening.

LLWS (170/45kt) is expected to begin in the next few hours as a
low level jet strengthens over the region. Shear will likely
continue through much of tomorrow and possibly increase to
(160/55kt) but as thunderstorms approach the terminals during the
afternoon/evening they will preclude a need for a mention in the
TAF.

Surface winds are beginning to pick up and will continue to do so
through the night peaking tomorrow evening ahead of a line of
showers and thunderstorms. Sustained winds ahead of the line
should be 25-30kts with gusts over 45 kts. Showers could start
near MEM and JBR early in the afternoon with the line reaching
the Mississippi River around 22-00Z. Gusts associated with
thunderstorms would most likely be from the west and could exceed
55kt. Will include 4sm vis in association with the prevailing
showers at all sites.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS


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