Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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188 FXUS62 KMFL 102330 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High temperatures today tied records at Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach with highs in the mid 90s. Overnight, temperatures will drop into the 70s but dewpoints will rise leading to a very muggy evening. Tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s as well and may tie or break records once again as this early season heat spell continues. No significant changes with this forecast update. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 102 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Models show mid-level ridging centered across SoFlo gradually been flatten as a shortwave trough and associated sfc low migrate over the SE US. This will keep SoFlo in the warm sector of the system, with warmer than normal low temps continuing tonight. For Saturday, very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface flow are expected, with afternoon highs again in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will hit low 100s. Later in the afternoon and evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across the area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach County (30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of South Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate lapse rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of effective bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East Coast. The primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop would be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week... High pressure will move back northward from the Florida Straits to the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into early next week. This will allow for the wind flow to become more east southeast over South Florida allow for the east coast sea breeze to develop and push westward across the region while the west coast sea breeze remains over the western areas. This will allow for some showers and a few thunderstorms to develop each afternoon and evening over the region especially where the sea breezes develop. The heat will continue over South Florida each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s except lower to mid 90s over the east coast metro areas. Heat indices will be around 100 except for the east coast metro areas where they will be in the mid to upper 90s. Middle of Next Week... High will move back southward into the Florida Straits as a through of low pressure moves eastward across the Southeastern United States. This will allow for a southwest steering flow over South Florida pushing the west coast sea breeze eastward across the region while keeping the east coast sea breeze over the east coast metro areas. Isolated to low end chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and evening with the best coverage over the NE areas of South Florida. The heat will also continue during this time with highest in the mid to upper 90s over most areas, except around 90 west coast metro areas each day. There could also be a few isolated areas over the eastern interior areas where it could get up to around 100 degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 100s over the interior areas with mid 100s over the east coast metro areas and around 100 over the west coast metro areas. Lows each night will remain the mid 70s over most areas, except upper 70s to near 80 degrees over the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period with mostly clear skies expected for most of the night. There is the possibility of lowering ceilings for the early morning period with clearing expected by the afternoon hours. A few showers or maybe an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during the afternoon although confidence and expected coverage is much too low to include in TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Moderate to fresh SSW winds will gradually shift W by Saturday as a cold frontal approaches the area. The Atlantic waters will likely reach small craft exercise caution criteria late this evening into tonight. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach coastline for the rest of today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 94 75 90 / 0 20 0 20 West Kendall 73 95 71 92 / 0 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 95 74 90 / 0 20 0 20 Homestead 75 94 73 90 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 93 75 88 / 0 30 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 75 94 75 89 / 0 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 76 96 75 90 / 0 20 0 20 West Palm Beach 74 93 73 89 / 10 40 0 20 Boca Raton 75 95 74 88 / 10 40 10 30 Naples 77 89 72 91 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION...Rizzuto