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000
FXUS62 KMHX 181330
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and clear conditions expected today. A backdoor cold front
crosses the region overnight. More unsettled weather is
possible for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 930 AM Thu...Little in the way of changes were made since
the previous update as everything is tracking well. Latest
satellite data and surface analysis shows low pressure off the
Delmarva Peninsula slowly tracking E`wards with its associated
fronts stretching from W to E across Maryland and Delaware out
into the Atlantic while a coastal trough remains just off the
coast this morning. Expect this low to continue to gradually
push out to sea while its associated cold front approaches from
the north this afternoon.

Prev Disc...Shortwave is quickly racing off the coast,
taking minimal precipitation with it and leaving clear skies in
its wake. Warm downsloping flow is expected through this
afternoon with highs climbing well into the 80s. West to west-
northwesterly flow will keep sea and sound breezes pinned along
the coast. Sided on the low end of guidance for Tds as models
have tend to underestimate mixing in these regimes. By mid-
afternoon, surface low sliding off the mid- Atlantic coast will
usher a weakening front across NOBX which will eventually help
push aforementioned sound breezes inland. The convergence of the
breezes and the front pose a low risk of shallow showers - not
high enough to warrant mentionable PoPs as column will still
remain very dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM Thu...Front will gradually push across the FA
through Fri morning although dry conditions will prevail. Low
stratus will encroach from the northeast behind the front with
moist onshore flow trapped under the frontal inversion. Biggest
question overnight is how cool temperatures will get behind the
front, particularly across the northern OBX. Knocked lows down
into the low 50s across this area, although some hi-res guidance
shows a 30-40% chance of lows in the upper 40s. Future
forecasts may need to lower MinTs further.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early
next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday through Friday night...Upper ridge axis cresting over the
area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another
dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is
progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night,
which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best
overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we`ll
have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk
of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17. E to NE
onshore flow will bring cooler temps along the coast, especially
across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well
inland highs expected in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected
to become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing
more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections
of ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow
for a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become
strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will
bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night
with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low
pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the
OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on
Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will
quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave
energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the
chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low
80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with
clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal
with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near
normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Fri/...
As of 715 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail over the area as skies
clear quickly behind the departing shortwave trough. Primarily
clear skies remain through the day as winds veer west to west-
northwest with a few gusts to 15 kt possible over the inner
coastal plain in the afternoon. By tonight, a weakening backdoor
cold front will push across the area from the northeast as a
weak offshore low drifts off the mid-Atlantic coast. The initial
passage will bring a wind shift out of the east, but lower cigs
are likely to gradually build over terminals after 06z. How far
the low stratus deck extends inland remains a question, with
highest confidence across NOBX and Albemarle Sound vicinity, and
low confidence extending through EWN and OAJ. If cigs do build
further south they are likely to be IFR.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level
shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low
pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday
night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR
conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 445 AM Thu...Winds are so far under-performing hi-res
guidance across area waters, with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt
across the Pamlico Sound and central waters ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave. Seas have primarily remained
under 6 feet with the exception over Diamond Shoals. Trend is
for winds to gradually ease as disturbance exits the region. By
this afternoon, backdoor cold front will gradually cross area
waters from northeast to south ushering in another surge of
10-15 kt northeasterly flow with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely
primarily overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. NE winds
around 10-20 kt Friday morning will become variable around 10 kt
or less by late in the day as high pressure ridging into the
area weakens. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night
becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front
drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will
develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night
into Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally
be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters
through Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak
Monday around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters
and 6-10 ft across the central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS