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000
FXUS62 KMHX 181922
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
322 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Backdoor cold front tracks across the area tonight eventually
stalling and dissipating just to the south this evening. More
unsettled weather is possible for the weekend into early next
week as a cold front tracks across the region Friday night with
a low pressure system and its associated fronts then impacting
the Carolinas on Saturday night into early next week before high
pressure ridge builds in from the west on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thu...Overall the flavor of the forecast hasn`t
changed much over the last several hours. Backdoor cold front
denoted by a wind shift with westerly winds out ahead of the
front and north to northeasterly winds behind the front will
continue to track southwestwards this afternoon and evening.
Out ahead and along the front some diurnal cumulus has developed
but should dissipate after sunset wit the loss of heating. Of
bigger consequence is the marine stratus which is currently well
offshore but has begin to track southwestwards towards eastern
North Carolina this afternoon, though it shouldn`t get to the
area until; after sunset regardless given the latest
information.

Aforementioned front will continue to push through ENC this
evening eventually stalling and dissipating tonight just to the
south in South Carolina. Behind the front low level stratus will
quickly invade the area from northeast to southwest tonight as
moist onshore flow becomes trapped beneath a frontal inversion.
This is forecast to allow for low cloud cover to overspread the
NOBX early tonight and then spread southwestwards towards the
Crystal Coast late this evening. Did continue to trend of
knocking down temps another degree or two tonight with much of
the aera getting into the mid to upper 50s, though where the
front has moved through already across the NOBX temps are now
forecast to get into the upper 40s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thu... Upper ridging briefly overspreads the
Eastern Seaboard Friday morning before pushing off the coast Fri
afternoon out ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave.
Associated cold front will be tracking E`wards across western
and central NC through the day on Friday with the front pushing
into the Coastal Plain by Friday evening. This front is forecast
to bring widely scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Still thinking there will only be general thunder
as this activity finally gets into the western Coastal Plain
late Friday afternoon at a point where instability will be
waning and shear will just begin increasing so thinking there is
a low threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
afternoon. Highs get into the low to mid 80s across the Coastal
Plain and into the 60s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early
next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday night...No real changes for the forecast for Fri night. Cold
front will push through the region Fri night continuing to bring a
threat for shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. Still
not expecting anything more than general thunder for Fri night
though trends will have to be monitored as there is a non-zero
threat for a stronger storm to develop as the front moves
through. Lows get into the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.

Saturday through midweek...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over
the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected to
become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing more
heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of
ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow for
a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become
strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will
bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night
with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low
pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the
OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on
Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will
quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave
energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the
chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low
80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with
clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal
with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near
normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Fri/...
As of 115 PM Thu... VFR conditions remain over ENC this
afternoon as a cold front has begun to make its way into the
area. Ahead of the front west to northwest winds will persist,
occasionally gusting to 15 kts at times this afternoon while
behind the front winds will shift to a north to northeast
direction generally around 5-10 kts. This front will be nearing
our southern zones by tonight before stalling out with a frontal
inversion setting up behind the front. This inversion will trap
whatever moisture we have in the lower levels allowing for low
stratus to eventually develop generally after the 03-06Z
timeframe first impacting the NOBX and eventually making its way
SW`wards across the FA after 06Z. There is still some
uncertainty with how far this low stratus deck makes it, but
with the most recent guidance it looks to make it as far SW as
EWN so have included an IFR ceiling deck from here to points
NE`ward in the TAF`s. Across the rest of the terminals
ISO/PGV/OAJ there remains too much uncertainty for lower
ceilings so have just kept a SCT MVFR deck in these other
locations though adjustments may need to be made in coming
updates. Otherwise marine stratus eventually lifts by mid
morning allowing VFR conditions to return across all of ENC.
Winds generally remain light through the entire period.


LONG TERM /Friday evening through Tuesday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level
shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low
pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday
night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR
conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 320 PM Thu...Backdoor cold front currently noted from
Hatteras Island NW`ward into the western Albemarle Sound and
will continue to gradually cross area waters from northeast to
south ushering in another surge of 10-20 kt northeasterly flow
tonight with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely. This front will
eventually stall and dissipate to our south allowing winds to
ease slightly down to 10-15 kts on Fri while becoming E-NE. Seas
will remain around 3-5 ft along our coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. Variable
winds around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15
kt on Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and
stalls offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front
Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday with NE
winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft,
occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters through
Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak Monday
around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-10
ft across the central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF