Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280947
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
447 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills in the teens will linger for a few hours after
  dawn.

- A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will lead to low minimum
  relative humidity this afternoon, particulary from Madison
  westward, leading to some burning concerns.

- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with
  a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few
  thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today through Friday:

High pressure will spread into the region through today, leading
to mostly clear skies. Winds will remain slightly elevated this
morning and lead to wind chills in the teens, mainly before
10am. We`ll then warm into the afternoon, reaching highs in the
mid to upper 40s.

While fuels aren`t particularly dry, there are some fire weather
concerns today as a model soundings show a well mixed dry
boundary layer this afternoon amid continuing westerly winds
around 15 to 20 mph. HREF guidance shows mean RH values
dropping into the upper 20s west of Madison, with ensemble min
RH values dropping even further into the upper teens. This may
meet operational thresholds for prescribed burns today, so we`ll
have to monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.

Lows will drop into mid 20s again tonight as skies remain clear
and winds ease as the center of high pressure moves over the
state.

Clouds then increase Friday as a warm front sets up south of the
state and warm advection increases over the region. Areas away
from Lake Michigan will see highs in the 50s, while areas along
the lakeshore will see temperatures dampened into the 40s by
cool onshore flow.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Precipitation is expected to blossom along the warm front parked
over central to northern IL Friday night as a subtle shortwave
imparts PVA over the region and enhances lift. The NBM paints
likely PoPs (60 to 70%) from 00z to 06z Saturday for most of
the area and then along the lakeshore from 06z to 12z Saturday.
Thunder chances aren`t looking great with the most recent model
runs, as the 00z GFS has 100 to 300 J/kg sneaking into the
southern half of our CWA around midnight. A rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out, but have mostly confined slight thunder
chances (20%) to along the WI/IL border overnight Friday into
Saturday. Rain should then quickly shift east and exit after 12z
Saturday following the wave with subsidence in the wake of the
wave then dampening rain chances for Saturday.

Still looking like a warm front/stationary front boundary will
remain in place over central to northern IL following an area of
weak high pressure that`ll pass quickly from west to east Saturday
into Sunday morning. Multiple weak waves are then expected to
propagate eastward along the baroclinic zone from Sunday
afternoon into Tuesday giving on and off rain chances during
this time. Rain chances should taper late Tuesday as a low
pressure system moves along the front and kicks the front away
from the upper Midwest. We`ll generally be on the northern side
of this swath of precipitation, so while we should see mostly
rain Sunday into Monday, colder air could intrude Monday night
into Tuesday, giving some areas of our CWA a rain snow mix.

Ensemble probs of greater than or equal to 1 inch of
precipitation still show model differences into the middle of
next week, with the GEFS favoring a more northern track to the
rain giving us better chances of getting in on more beneficial
rain. The EPS still favors more southern track to the
precipitation into next week giving the eastern Corn Belt the
lions share of the moisture. With track differences still
evident this morning between the GEFS and EPS, there are still
some details that need to be worked out with the Sunday -
Tuesday system (likely relating to where the front will park) so
stay tuned as we begin to hone the forecast into the weekend.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through today and through tonight as
skies should remain mostly clear to mostly sunny, save for a few
passing clouds near KSBM and along the Wisconsin/Illinois border
this morning. Winds will be westerly with breezes from 15 to 20
knots mainly from the late morning into the afternoon. Winds
should then ease overnight and come around from westerly to
northerly to easterly by Friday morning as a high pressure ridge
passes over the state.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure will build into the upper Great Lakes Region
today. While this high pressure will exert its influence over
the region, a pair of troughs are expected to pass over the lake
today. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to
persist over the lake today with winds easing overnight as the
high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and
variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday,
before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low
pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and
northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake
on Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

While FFMC will not be at criteria today, full sunshine and a
relatively dry, well mixed boundary layer amid west breezes to
20 mph will allow for min RHs to drop into the upper 20s over
most of the CWA. Preferred areas for lower drops to 20 to 25%
will be in the Kettle Moraine and from Madison westward into
the southern reaches of the Driftless Area and the Wisconsin
River Valley. With min RHs projected to drop very low, there is
at least some concern for prescribed burns meeting go/no-go
thresholds and citizen burning today despite the fuels still
having sufficient moisture.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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