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000
FNUS73 KMKX 151209
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Botham north rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
709 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 15.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Limited mixing heights this morning will lift to around 4300 ft
this afternoon. Light northeast winds are expected until this
evening when they become due east. Smoke dispersal will be fair
this afternoon. Low RH of 25 percent is expected this afternoon.
If temperatures end up warmer then RH will be closer to 20
percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    northeast 5 to 6 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the north 7 to
                    10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /29300 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   6   8   6   6   3   2   7   8   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  57  62  65  67  69  70  71  72  71
RH..............61  51  41  37  33  30  27  26  26  27
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..3   4   4   5   6   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2
Transp wind dir.E   NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.6   5   9   10  9   8   7   8   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10002   4   17  27  28  26  24  29  26  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph late
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9   5   7   8   10  13  16  19  23  27  31  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............70  67  64  61  57  55  53  50  49  49  48  47
RH..............29  36  38  42  49  57  59  59  56  58  58  58
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   8   9   10  10  9   10  11
20 FT wind gust.10  10  11  13  14  16  17  18  18  18  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  14  16  17  18  18  20  21  20  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100024  4   4   5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12  14

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning, then rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph
                    increasing to 37 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the morning and early
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 23 to 32 mph increasing to 33 to 37 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  50  61  73  81  80  78  79  83  89  93  93
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Temp............47  46  49  51  55  56  58  60  59  58  58  58
RH..............61  56  58  59  57  57  57  60  62  67  69  72
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..12  13  14  15  15  15  16  16  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.20  21  22  23  23  23  23  23  26  28  29  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.25  23  29  29  31  32  33  35  36  36  37  35
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100019  18  32  32  40  43  47  52  54  54  56  45

$$
Forecaster...Cronce
Requested by...Caleb Klima
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410865.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL caleb.klima@tnc.org