631
FNUS73 KMPX 011338
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Numo Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
838 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on May 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Numo Rx Burn, clouds will increase through
the day with highs in the mid 60s. Winds will start out on the
breezy side out of the west before diminishing by early afternoon
and becoming northwesterly. RH values will fall to around 30-35%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Northwest winds 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /82300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /82300 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 22 mph shifting to the northwest 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  62  63  64  63  63  62  60  58  56  54  54
RH..............47  43  39  38  41  43  48  53  57  64  69  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  W   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..13  12  10  8   6   1   5   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.22  18  16  14  12  9   8   8   9   9   10  13
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.5 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  N   NE  E   SE  E   E   SE
Transp wind spd.22  18  15  10  9   7   6   6   8   9   9   10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am, then rain showers likely early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast 6 to
                    12 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (44300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 12
                    to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412906.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us