987
FXUS66 KMTR 291651
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
951 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the
coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return
for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the
forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quite a different scene as compared to the last few mornings as
skies are currently clear across the region. Clear skies will
allow for temperatures to reach the upper 50s on the beaches and
the mid 70s in the warmest inland valley locations. Strong
northwesterly winds will continue today with most locations likely
to receive gusts of 25 mph, especially along the immediate
coastline and higher peaks. These strong northwesterly winds are
also resulting in poor marine conditions.

No update needed...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A relatively benign weather pattern persists featuring quasi-zonal
flow across California with weak troughing across the Pacific
Northwest states. This will bring a weak/dissipating cold front
through the Bay Area with little fanfare, as the primary weather
concern remains steady onshore winds. Conditions will be rather
breezy along the coast yet again, with peak gusts in the 30-40 mph
range. This will have a cooling effect on temperatures there, while
inland readings warm during the afternoon. High temperatures will
range from the upper 50s on the beaches to the mid 70s in the
warmest inland valleys. Look for patchy coastal stratus development
once again overnight with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A subtle ridge over California continues through the work week, with
an upper level low passing through the Great Basin. The story of the
week will be clear skies and warmer weather with interior valleys
seeing highs in the low 80s and the coasts seeing highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

The upcoming weekend sees a pattern change with an upper level low
coming into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, bringing a weak front
through California. The chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday,
currently up to 20-30% Probability of Precipitation, has expanded
throughout the forecast region, although rain amounts remain light
with the higher elevations receiving up to a tenth of an inch of
rain. Cluster and ensemble model output also suggest a deeper upper
level low coming into the Pacific Northwest during the first week of
May, and CPC products continue to suggest cooler temperatures and
increased rain chances into the second week of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Patches of MVFR stratus across the higher elevations of the Bay Area
and Central Coast, impacting the Monterey Bay terminals at some
point this morning and generally staying away from the Bay Area
terminals. Moderate to breezy onshore winds building again this
afternoon, gusting to 20 to 30 knots. Not expecting widespread
stratus coverage to return this evening into Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty west-
northwest winds will return this afternoon. Model output showing
gusts up to 30-35 knots through the evening, but would not be
surprised to see gusts exceeding 35 knots develop.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Patchy MVFR stratus expected to impact the
terminals at some point this morning. Moderate onshore flow will
build in the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Low confidence
of stratus returning to the region this evening through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Hazardous conditions will prevail over the coastal waters through
midweek thanks to persistent gusty northerly winds. Gale force
winds with gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible over the outer
waters and portions of the immediate coast near Point Reyes and
Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh steep wind waves
with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions will gradually
improve late in the week into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...MM

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