Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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101 FXUS63 KOAX 271125 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms Today and Saturday with strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding possible. Greater flooding threat on Saturday night. - Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday as well, to a lesser degree, but brief tornadoes possible as well. - Storms wrap up by Monday, with warmer temperatures arriving next week. Another round of showers and storms possible Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Multiple violent tornadoes scoured the forecast area yesterday, leaving a path of devastation in their wake. Multiple damage surveys will be conducted on Saturday in order to begin to determine the number and intensity of each tornado. Overall, the surveys will take days, if not weeks to complete, with 2 more days of severe weather waiting on our doorstep. Our hearts go out to all of the people that have been impacted by Friday`s event. We had a brief reprieve tonight to catch our breath, as storms festered off to our east, over eastern Iowa. A frontal boundary attendant to the surface low associated with Friday`s storms has sagged south of forecast area overnight. Quiet weather will prevail through the morning hours on Saturday, before that boundary lifts north as a warm front ahead of the next low pressure system. Round two of severe weather will ignite along this boundary near the Nebraska/Kansas border by around 2 PM Saturday. Large hail, strong winds, and potentially a strong tornado or two will be possible once again as these storms lift north toward I-80. The boundary will eventually stall, bisecting our CWA Saturday evening. With PWATs approaching the 90th percentile, climatologically, we could see some heavy rain production from these storms. While it depends on how far north the front is able to travel, should these storms overlap the location of Friday`s heavy rainfall/saturated ground, areas of flooding would be likely. Therefore, we opted to hoist a Flood Watch from locations along and north of a line from Seward, NE to Red Oak IA for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Our third and final round of severe storms (at least for the immediate future) arrives Sunday as the surface low passes over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The greatest chance for severe storms looks to be just to the south east of our forecast area SUnday afternoon and evening. however large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes could clip far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Storms finally exit the region late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Overall, our pattern remains active through next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday and persisting through next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Main forecast concern will be thunderstorm timing this afternoon into this evening as a line develops near the NE/KS border and pushes north. Currently included -TSRA mention at all sites for 2 hours based on timing showed by latest guidance, though exact timing could very easily change. In addition, some additional on and off storms could persist into the evening and overnight hours, though kept those as -SHRA mention for now. Once again, storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. Otherwise, expect some SCT to BKN MVFR clouds at OFK through the period. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings then look to move in by this evening. Winds will start out of the northwest and gradually become northeast, outside of any storms. Speeds will generally be in the 6 to 12 kt range, with some gusts of 20 to 25 kts at OFK later in the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067. IA...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...CA